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Swinging all the way : the education of Doctor Lucas and Foes
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Resumo(s)
The history of the last seventy years of business cycle research can be written as the successive intonations of this dialogue and confrontation between Frisch and Slutsky. Is equilibrium best represented by the properties of a dampening and equilibrating mechanism, or by the process of averaging through time the results of the drawings from one urn—and which are the economic analogues for such processes? Necessity plus chance, or order out of disorder? This quarrel is the subject of the next section, and I take it up before turning to the metaphors’ fin de siècle derivatives, when enters the central personage, Robert Lucas. By the 1960s, this method was transformed and the traditional econometric approach was adopted: the NBER researchers adopted a “growth cycle” approach, defined as a “fluctuation around the long-run growth trend of a nation’s economy, that is, a trend adjusted business cycle” (Moore and Zarnowitz 1986, 772). Yet, Mitchell was vindicated when the discussion on the nature of the relation between trend and cycle emerged again some decades later on, curiously just by the time the threads of the implicit polemics between Slutsky and Frisch resurfaced as well. Lucas and his heirs and Foes were responsible for bringing economics back to that crossroad once more.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
History Economic Theory Econometric Approach
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Louçã, Francisco .(2004). “Swinging all the way : the education of Doctor Lucas and Foes”. History of Political Economy, Vol. 36, No. 4: pp. 689-735
Editora
Duke University Press