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Resumo(s)
Since 1990, scientific information has not been transformed into effective climate mitigation policies. Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and emission scenarios represent a critical scientific tool for analyzing future climate change and the effect of the Paris Agreement. Scientifically, IAMs are considered essential for informing policymakers to avoid future catastrophes. This paper survey delegates of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), presenting a timely contribution to ongoing debates about the role of emission scenarios in policymaking. The scenario literature reveals that scientists focus on the quality of scenario content and methods, assessing policy relevance from a scientific perspective. In contrast, we show that policymakers focus on understanding and using scientific tools for negotiations and national policy. Too little attention has been paid to the needs and views of scenario users in discussions about how to develop "policy-relevant" scenarios. We show a contradictory policymaker request for simpler scenario communication and more national detail, and clear-cut understandings of efficient century-long mitigation and adaptation actions. We suggest communicating scenario series (and scientific knowledge) separately and in non-technical terms for policymakers with clear links for policy implementation. Modelers need to be selective in the communicated scenario information. To meet the policymaker demand for "national detail", we recommend short-term scenarios to support national policy designs by providing plausible national roadmaps, and comparing national targets and global goals. Furthermore, we suggest long-term scenarios to support UNFCCC negotiations with examples of specific global climate policy roadmaps fulfilling the Paris agreement.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Emission scenarios scenario policy relevance scenario communication
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Pedersen, J. S. T., Gomes, C. M., Gupta, J., Vuuren, D., Santos, F. D., Swart, R. (2022). The Policy-Relevance of Emission Scenarios: Policymakers Require Simpler, Relevant, and More Communicative Scenarios (March 7, 2022).