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Identifying buildings at risk and pedestrian travel times to safety areas in a debris flow worst-case scenario
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Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
During the last two centuries, several debris flow events occurred in the upper part of the Zêzere
valley, which is located in the Estrela mountain, in Central Portugal. These events were responsible
for material damage as well as for the loss of lives. Given the susceptibility of this area to the
occurrence of debris flows, a methodology for pedestrian evacuation modelling was implemented,
in order to identify buildings at risk and pedestrian travel times to safety areas in a debris flow
worst-case scenario. Starting from a dynamic run-out model, developed in previous works, the
potential debris flow intensity was estimated (e.g. flow depth, velocity and run-out distance).
Sequentially, the buildings potentially affected by the impact of debris flows, as well as the ones
where the evacuation would take longer than the debris flows arrival, were identified. In addition,
the potentially exposed population was estimated by applying a dasymetric distribution to each
residential building. This population distribution took into account the identification of the older
residents as the most exposed to debris flows, which is critical to develop reliable pedestrian
evacuation travel time scenarios. The pedestrian evacuation modelling was performed using the
Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst, a GIS tool developed by the United States Geological Survey. The
evacuation modelling was based on an anisotropic approach, which considers the influence of
slope direction on travel costs, thus its application is suitable in a mountainous area. The
implemented methodology is a critical step towards the implementation of a reliable early warning
system to debris flows that can be reproduced elsewhere.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Debris flows Pedestrian evacuation Buildings at risk
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Melo, R.; Zêzere, J.L.; Oliveira, S.C.; Garcia, R.A.C.; Oliveira, S.; Pereira, S.; Piedade, A.; Santos, P.P.; van Asch, T. (2020). Identifying buildings at risk and pedestrian travel times to safety areas in a debris flow worst case scenario. Geophysical Research Abstracts, EGU General Assembly 2020. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-2403
Editora
European Geosciences Union