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A ordem internacional como complexidade
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Resumo(s)
A presente dissertação defende que a ordem internacional possui as características de um sistema complexo adaptativo, pelo que os conceitos desenvolvidos no âmbito das ciências da complexidade, são os mais aptos à compreensão e à descrição do seu funcionamento. No entanto, se estes se mostram ideais a esse fim, por si só, não permitem a elaboração de uma teoria explicativa e preditiva das Relações Internacionais, nomeadamente no que se refere à causa da emergência dos fenómenos que se observam nessa esfera. Nesse sentido, aqui se propõe que uma teoria explicativa da emergência da fenomenologia das Relações Internacionais, deve assentar na geopolítica desenvolvida pelos agentes internacionais, em função dos seus interesses próprios, com destaque para aqueles que percebem como vitais, os quais geram limites mútuos à actuação uns dos outros, cuja violação aumenta o risco de conflito. Igualmente se propõe que apesar de o sistema político internacional ser um sistema complexo adaptativo, contrariamente ao assumido por perspectivas mais doutrinárias mais conceptualmente rígidas da ciência da complexidade, é possível obter um grau limitado de previsibilidade da actuação dos agentes do sistema e do desenvolvimento dos fenómenos que emergem na esfera internacional, através do recurso a teorias explicativas e a ferramentas intelectuais lógicas, como os juízos de possibilidade e probabilidade e à cenarização e à análise de risco.
This dissertation argues that the international order possesses the characteristics of a complex adaptive system, and that, as such, the concepts developed within the framework of complexity science are the most appropriate for understanding and describing its functioning. However, while these concepts prove to be ideal for this purpose, they are not, in themselves, sufficient to support the formulation of an explanatory and predictive theory of International Relations—particularly concerning the causes underlying the emergence of phenomena observed within this domain. In this regard, it is proposed that an explanatory theory of the emergence of International Relations phenomenology should be grounded in the geopolitics pursued by international actors, according to their respective interests – especially those they perceive as vital – which generate mutual constraints on one another's actions, the violation of which increases the likelihood of conflict. It is also proposed that, although the international political system constitutes a complex adaptive system, contrary to what is assumed by more doctrinaire and conceptually rigid perspectives within complexity science, it is nonetheless possible to achieve a limited degree of predictability regarding the behaviour of the system’s agents and the development of phenomena emerging in the international sphere. This can be accomplished through the use of explanatory theories and logical intellectual tools, such as assessments of possibility and probability, scenario planning, and risk analysis.
This dissertation argues that the international order possesses the characteristics of a complex adaptive system, and that, as such, the concepts developed within the framework of complexity science are the most appropriate for understanding and describing its functioning. However, while these concepts prove to be ideal for this purpose, they are not, in themselves, sufficient to support the formulation of an explanatory and predictive theory of International Relations—particularly concerning the causes underlying the emergence of phenomena observed within this domain. In this regard, it is proposed that an explanatory theory of the emergence of International Relations phenomenology should be grounded in the geopolitics pursued by international actors, according to their respective interests – especially those they perceive as vital – which generate mutual constraints on one another's actions, the violation of which increases the likelihood of conflict. It is also proposed that, although the international political system constitutes a complex adaptive system, contrary to what is assumed by more doctrinaire and conceptually rigid perspectives within complexity science, it is nonetheless possible to achieve a limited degree of predictability regarding the behaviour of the system’s agents and the development of phenomena emerging in the international sphere. This can be accomplished through the use of explanatory theories and logical intellectual tools, such as assessments of possibility and probability, scenario planning, and risk analysis.
Descrição
Tese de mestrado, Direito e Prática Jurídica, 2025, Faculdade de Direito, Universidade de Lisboa
Palavras-chave
Relações internacionais Nova ordem internacional Complexidade Sistema Geopolítica Teses de mestrado – 2025