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Convergência das estruturas de vantagens comparativas de Portugal com a zona euro entre 1995 e 2018
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O objetivo da presente dissertação é analisar o processo de convergência do padrão de vantagens comparativas de Portugal com a Zona Euro a 19 (EA19), no período de 1995 a 2018. Isto é, pretende-se verificar se essa (desejada) convergência se acentuou ou atenuou num período marcado por importantes alterações sistémicas (entrada em funcionamento do sistema euro) e perturbações estruturais que afetaram muito significativamente a economia portuguesa (crise das dívidas soberanas e consequentes resgates financeiros).
A análise levada a cabo sustenta-se em informação estatística da base de dados OCDE – TiVA, sobre fluxos comerciais. Utilizou-se o Índice de Vantagens Comparativas Reveladas (IVCR) de Balassa em 3 versões: i) Valor Bruto das Exportações; ii) Valor Acrescentado Nacional incorporado nas exportações e iii) Valor Acrescentado Nacional dirigido à Procura Final Externa. Estas duas últimas opções pretendem colmatar os problemas associados à utilização do valor das Exportações Brutas, sobretudo a dupla contagem, mas também obter uma visão diferenciada da economia e dos seus sectores chave.
Concluiu-se que, ao contrário do expectável e desejável e de se ter registado um crescimento nominal e em percentagem do PIB das exportações portuguesas no período em apreço, a trajetória de convergência da estrutura de vantagens comparativas reveladas (VCR) da economia portuguesa com a EA19 perdeu ímpeto na sequência da adesão ao Euro e parece mesmo ter sido interrompida na sequência dos choques decorrentes da crise de 2008/2009.
The aim of this dissertation is to assess the convergence of Portugal's pattern of comparative advantages with the Eurozone 19 (EA19) between 1995 and 2018. It will also be evaluated if this (desired) economic convergence has increased or decreased, especially in a period that has seen systemic (Euro commissioning) and structural upheavals that affected the Portuguese economy significantly (sovereign debt crisis and consequent financial bailouts). To this end, statistical information was collected from OECD’s TiVA database, on trade flows. The Balassa Index of Revealed Comparative Advantages (IVCR) was used in 3 versions: i) Gross Exports; ii) National Value Added incorporated in Exports; iii) National Value Added directed to External Final Demand. These last two options (with value added) are intended to overcome the problems of using Gross Exports, namely double counting, but also provide a differentiated view of the economy and its key sectors. It was concluded that, contrary to what was expected and desirable and despite the growth in Portuguese exports (nominal and as a percentage of Gross Product), during the period in question, the convergence path of the Portuguese revealed comparative advantages (VCR) structure with the EA19, lost momentum after joining the Euro and even seems to have been interrupted following the shocks resulting from the 2008/2009 crisis.
The aim of this dissertation is to assess the convergence of Portugal's pattern of comparative advantages with the Eurozone 19 (EA19) between 1995 and 2018. It will also be evaluated if this (desired) economic convergence has increased or decreased, especially in a period that has seen systemic (Euro commissioning) and structural upheavals that affected the Portuguese economy significantly (sovereign debt crisis and consequent financial bailouts). To this end, statistical information was collected from OECD’s TiVA database, on trade flows. The Balassa Index of Revealed Comparative Advantages (IVCR) was used in 3 versions: i) Gross Exports; ii) National Value Added incorporated in Exports; iii) National Value Added directed to External Final Demand. These last two options (with value added) are intended to overcome the problems of using Gross Exports, namely double counting, but also provide a differentiated view of the economy and its key sectors. It was concluded that, contrary to what was expected and desirable and despite the growth in Portuguese exports (nominal and as a percentage of Gross Product), during the period in question, the convergence path of the Portuguese revealed comparative advantages (VCR) structure with the EA19, lost momentum after joining the Euro and even seems to have been interrupted following the shocks resulting from the 2008/2009 crisis.
Descrição
Mestrado Bolonha em Economia Internacional e Estudos Europeus
Palavras-chave
Portugal Convergência Vantagens Comparativas Reveladas Zona Euro Portugal Convergence Revealed Comparative Advantages Euro Zone.
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Carrasco, Nuno Manuel Moreno (2023). “Convergência das estruturas de vantagens comparativas de Portugal com a zona euro entre 1995 e 2018”. Dissertação de Mestrado. Universidade de Lisboa. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão
Editora
Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão