A carregar...
Publicação
Modeling rainfall input variability for flash floods in Portugal: the influence of predisposing factors
| Nome: | Descrição: | Tamanho: | Formato: | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.45 MB | Adobe PDF |
Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
Flash floods are often responsible for deaths and damage to infrastructure. The objective of this work is to create a data-driven
model to understand how predisposing factors influence the spatial variation of the triggering factor (rainfall intensity) in the case
of flash floods in the continental area of Portugal. Flash floods
occurrences were extracted from the DISASTER database. We
extracted the accumulated precipitation from the Copernicus
database by considering two days of duration. The analysed predisposing factors for flooding were extracted considering the
whole basin where each occurrence is located. These factors
include the basin area, the predominant lithology, drainage density, and the mean or median values of elevation, slope, stream
power index (SPI), topographic wetness index (TWI), roughness,
and four soil properties. The Random Forest algorithm was used
to build the models and obtained mean absolute percentage
error (MAPE) around 19%, an acceptable value for the objectives
of the work. The median of SPI, mean elevation and the area of
the basin are the top three most relevant predisposing factors
interpreted by the model for defining the rainfall input for flash
flooding in mainland Portugal.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Rainfall intensity Predisposing factors Flash flood Random Forest model
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Villaça, C., Santos, P. P. & Zêzere, J.L. (2025) Modeling rainfall input variability for flash floods in Portugal: the influence of predisposing factors. Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 16(1), 2462179. https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2025.2462179
Editora
Taylor & Francis