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Equity research - Royal Mail PLC
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Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
A principal motivação na escolha do Royal Mail é entender o comportamento que ele terá nos próximos anos e os efeitos impactantes que o Brexit pode vir a causar numa grande empresa britânica.
Estima-se que o crescimento econômico desacelere nos próximos anos, não apenas por toda a Europa, mas também a nível mundial.
Assim, definindo os métodos de análise e avaliação da empresa através da estrutura CFA, foi feita uma estimativa de uma meta de preço.
Sendo uma das maiores empresas do setor, a Royal Mail possui dois segmentos, sendo o primeiro referente à distribuição de cartas e encomendas no Reino Unido e o segundo referente à distribuição de encomendas na Europa, EUA e Canadá, tendo obtido um volume de receitas £ 10.581 milhões em 2019.
Para avaliar o valor intrínseco do Royal Mail, o principal modelo de avaliação foi o Fluxo de Caixa Descontado (DCF) e a avaliação múltipla como modelo relativo para corroborar o principal. Por meio do modelo absoluto, foi possível verificar uma meta de preço para 25 de março de 2020 de £ 232,27 por ação, representando uma queda de 2,20% no período homólogo, o que significa que minha recomendação é de VENDA com alto risco.
Além dos modelos de avaliação, análises de sensibilidade e simulação de Monte Carlo também foram utilizadas para apoiar esses resultados.
The main motivation in choosing Royal Mail is to understand the behavior it will have in the coming years and the impacting effects that Brexit may have on a large British company. Economic growth is expected to slow down in the coming years, not only across Europe, but also worldwide. Thus, defining the methods of analysis and evaluation of the company through the CFA structure, an estimate of a price target was made. As one of the largest companies in the sector, Royal Mail has two segments, the first referring to the distribution of letters and parcels in the United Kingdom and the second referring to the distribution of parcels in Europe, USA and Canada, having obtained a volume of revenue £ 10,581 million in 2019. To assess the intrinsic value of Royal Mail, the main valuation model was the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and the multiple valuation as a relative model to corroborate the principal. Through the absolute model, it was possible to verify a price target for March 25, 2020 of £ 232.27 per share, representing a 2.20% drop in the same period, which means that my recommendation is for SALE with high risk. In addition to the evaluation models, sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation were also used to support these results.
The main motivation in choosing Royal Mail is to understand the behavior it will have in the coming years and the impacting effects that Brexit may have on a large British company. Economic growth is expected to slow down in the coming years, not only across Europe, but also worldwide. Thus, defining the methods of analysis and evaluation of the company through the CFA structure, an estimate of a price target was made. As one of the largest companies in the sector, Royal Mail has two segments, the first referring to the distribution of letters and parcels in the United Kingdom and the second referring to the distribution of parcels in Europe, USA and Canada, having obtained a volume of revenue £ 10,581 million in 2019. To assess the intrinsic value of Royal Mail, the main valuation model was the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and the multiple valuation as a relative model to corroborate the principal. Through the absolute model, it was possible to verify a price target for March 25, 2020 of £ 232.27 per share, representing a 2.20% drop in the same period, which means that my recommendation is for SALE with high risk. In addition to the evaluation models, sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation were also used to support these results.
Descrição
Mestrado em Finanças
Palavras-chave
Equity Research Valuation DCF FCFF Multiple Valuation Royal Mail UKPIL GLS
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Duarte, Filipe Miguel Ferreira (2019). "Equity research - Royal Mail PLC". Dissertação de Mestrado, Universidade de Lisboa. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão.
Editora
Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão