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Authors
Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
The recent years had brought significant uncertainty to macroeconomic forecasts made not only by specialized international institutions but also by central governments. This dissertation assesses the determinants of revenue forecast errors for the EU-15 between 1999 and 2012, based on the forecasts published bi-annually by the European Commission. A particular important result obtained was that tax rate changes do affect revenue errors and that different tax changes affect differently revenue errors. Also, GDP errors, minority governments, election year and corporate rate changes can be associated to overly optimistic revenue forecasts. On the other hand, 10-year bond yields, inflation errors and VAT changes are associated with a more prudent behaviour.
Description
Mestrado em Economia Monetária e Financeira
Keywords
macro forecasts revenue forecast errors EU
Pedagogical Context
Citation
Carvalho, Rui Miguel da Costa. 2013. "Revenue forecast errors in the European Union". Dissertação de Mestrado. Universidade de Lisboa. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão.
Publisher
Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão