Publication
Simulating the effects of mobility restrictions in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in metropolitan areas
| dc.contributor.author | Oliveira, Sandra | |
| dc.contributor.author | Rocha, Jorge | |
| dc.contributor.author | Ribeiro, Ana Isabel | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2022-11-29T15:20:03Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2022-11-29T15:20:03Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2021-07-06 | |
| dc.description.abstract | Mobility restrictions have been implemented in many countries to curb the spread of the SARS-Cov-2 virus. We simulated the effects of mobility restrictions in the spread of SARS- CoV-2 amongst the municipalities of two metropolitan areas in Portugal (Lisbon-LMA, and Porto-PMA), the most densely populated areas in the country and with intense commuting flows. Based on an adapted SEIR model, we estimate the number of new daily infections along 10 months, according to different mobility scenarios, restricted to essential activities, industrial activities, and public transport use, as well as a scenario with unrestricted mobility including all transport modes. At municipal level, the trends of new daily infections were further explored by means of time-series clustering analysis, using dynamic time warping as a dissimilarity measure. Results indicate that mobility restrictions are reflected in lower numbers of new daily infections when compared to the unrestricted mobility scenario, in both metropolitan areas. Between March and October 2020, the official number of new infections follows a similar timeline to the one simulated considering only essential activities. At municipal level, trends differ amongst the two metropolitan areas; while in LMA, Lisbon municipality absorbs most of the flows and has the highest number of new infections in all scenarios, in PMA the highest number of infections is reached by different municipalities depending on the scenario. These distinct characteristics should be considered in reopening strategies linked to the pandemic, as well as in approaches to improve mobility conditions in metropolitan areas. | pt_PT |
| dc.description.version | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion | pt_PT |
| dc.identifier.citation | Oliveira, S. Rocha, J., Ribeiro, A.I. (2021). Simulating the effects of mobility restrictions in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in metropolitan areas, 17th International Conference on Urban Health, Transforming our Collective Urban Future: Learning from COVID-19, Virtual, USA, July 6-8. | pt_PT |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10451/55279 | |
| dc.language.iso | eng | pt_PT |
| dc.peerreviewed | yes | pt_PT |
| dc.relation | healTh RIsk and social vulnerability to Arboviral Diseases in mainland portugal | |
| dc.subject | SARS-CoV-2 | pt_PT |
| dc.subject | mobility scenarios | pt_PT |
| dc.subject | SEIR model, | pt_PT |
| dc.subject | urban areas | pt_PT |
| dc.title | Simulating the effects of mobility restrictions in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in metropolitan areas | pt_PT |
| dc.type | conference object | |
| dspace.entity.type | Publication | |
| oaire.awardTitle | healTh RIsk and social vulnerability to Arboviral Diseases in mainland portugal | |
| oaire.awardURI | info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/3599-PPCDT/PTDC%2FGES-OUT%2F30210%2F2017/PT | |
| oaire.citation.conferencePlace | Virtual, EUA | pt_PT |
| oaire.citation.title | 17th International Conference on Urban Health | pt_PT |
| oaire.fundingStream | 3599-PPCDT | |
| person.familyName | Oliveira | |
| person.familyName | Rocha | |
| person.givenName | Sandra | |
| person.givenName | Jorge | |
| person.identifier | 0000000069085031 | |
| person.identifier.ciencia-id | 8A16-4976-FD63 | |
| person.identifier.ciencia-id | EC15-76DC-9B96 | |
| person.identifier.orcid | 0000-0002-6253-4353 | |
| person.identifier.orcid | 0000-0002-7228-6330 | |
| person.identifier.rid | AAK-5051-2020 | |
| person.identifier.rid | F-3185-2017 | |
| person.identifier.scopus-author-id | 17435272900 | |
| person.identifier.scopus-author-id | 56428061000 | |
| project.funder.identifier | http://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871 | |
| project.funder.name | Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia | |
| rcaap.rights | openAccess | pt_PT |
| rcaap.type | conferenceObject | pt_PT |
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