| Name: | Description: | Size: | Format: | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.01 MB | Adobe PDF |
Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
Mobility restrictions have been implemented in many countries to curb the spread of the
SARS-Cov-2 virus. We simulated the effects of mobility restrictions in the spread of SARS-
CoV-2 amongst the municipalities of two metropolitan areas in Portugal (Lisbon-LMA, and
Porto-PMA), the most densely populated areas in the country and with intense commuting
flows. Based on an adapted SEIR model, we estimate the number of new daily infections
along 10 months, according to different mobility scenarios, restricted to essential activities,
industrial activities, and public transport use, as well as a scenario with unrestricted mobility
including all transport modes. At municipal level, the trends of new daily infections were
further explored by means of time-series clustering analysis, using dynamic time warping as a
dissimilarity measure. Results indicate that mobility restrictions are reflected in lower numbers
of new daily infections when compared to the unrestricted mobility scenario, in both
metropolitan areas. Between March and October 2020, the official number of new infections
follows a similar timeline to the one simulated considering only essential activities. At
municipal level, trends differ amongst the two metropolitan areas; while in LMA, Lisbon
municipality absorbs most of the flows and has the highest number of new infections in all
scenarios, in PMA the highest number of infections is reached by different municipalities
depending on the scenario. These distinct characteristics should be considered in reopening
strategies linked to the pandemic, as well as in approaches to improve mobility conditions in
metropolitan areas.
Description
Keywords
SARS-CoV-2 mobility scenarios SEIR model, urban areas
Pedagogical Context
Citation
Oliveira, S. Rocha, J., Ribeiro, A.I. (2021). Simulating the effects of mobility restrictions in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in metropolitan areas, 17th International Conference on Urban Health, Transforming our Collective Urban Future: Learning from COVID-19, Virtual, USA, July 6-8.