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A spatial econometric approach about the hedonic house prices in mainland Portugal
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Resumo(s)
A falta de estabilidade que caracteriza o mercado imobiliário estimula a discussão sobre os principais fatores que afetam a sua valorização. Através do software STATA, este artigo faz uma análise empírica do papel das amenidades locais e atributos socioeconômicos das regiões que podem afetar e ser responsáveis pelo preço atribuído aos imóveis residenciais. Este estudo foca-se no preço mediano da habitação nos 278 concelhos de Portugal Continental, entre 2016 e 2020. O mercado da habitação foi modelado num contexto econométrico espacial utilizando o modelo espacial de Durbin e examinando o efeito de municípios contíguos através de uma matriz de ponderação. Os resultados mostraram evidências de autocorrelação espacial entre os preços das casas, comprovando que a localização desempenha um papel fundamental. Os mesmos resultados mostram que variáveis como o salário, a quantidade de hospitais, de alojamentos turísticos e espaços culturais, aumentam significativamente os preços da habitação.
The lack of stability that characterizes the house market encourage a discussion about the main drivers of real estate valuation. Modelling it has for long been recognized as a central investigation area. Using STATA software, this dissertation is based on an empirical analysis of the role of locational amenities and socioeconomic attributes of neighbourhoods that may affect and be responsible for the price that is attributed to residential houses. This study focuses on the median house price in the 278 municipalities of mainland Portugal, between 2016 and 2020. The housing market was modelled in a spatial econometric context using the Spatial Durbin Model and then examining the effect of contiguous municipalities using a weighting matrix. The results show evidence of spatial autocorrelation between real estate prices, proving that the placement of each region plays a critical role. The same results show that variables such as salary, the number of hospitals, the number of tourist accommodations and cultural spaces significantly increase housing prices.
The lack of stability that characterizes the house market encourage a discussion about the main drivers of real estate valuation. Modelling it has for long been recognized as a central investigation area. Using STATA software, this dissertation is based on an empirical analysis of the role of locational amenities and socioeconomic attributes of neighbourhoods that may affect and be responsible for the price that is attributed to residential houses. This study focuses on the median house price in the 278 municipalities of mainland Portugal, between 2016 and 2020. The housing market was modelled in a spatial econometric context using the Spatial Durbin Model and then examining the effect of contiguous municipalities using a weighting matrix. The results show evidence of spatial autocorrelation between real estate prices, proving that the placement of each region plays a critical role. The same results show that variables such as salary, the number of hospitals, the number of tourist accommodations and cultural spaces significantly increase housing prices.
Descrição
Mestrado Bolonha em Econometria Aplicada e Previsão
Palavras-chave
Mercado imobiliário Preços das casas Econometria espacial Dados em Painel Modelo de Durbin Espacial Real estate House prices Spatial econometrics Panel data Spatial Durbin Model
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Cruz, Marta Sofia Laurindo (2022). “A spatial econometric approach about the hedonic house prices in mainland Portugal". Dissertação de Mestrado. Universidade de Lisboa. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão.
Editora
Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão