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Combining Self-Consumption and Energy Arbitrage to mitigate the Duck Curve: A case study of Primary and Secondary schools in Cardiff, Wales
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Resumo(s)
The widespread adoption of photovoltaic systems has created both opportunities and challenges for power grids, particularly with the emergence of the “Duck Curve”. This phenomenon results from low net load because of high solar generation during peak solar hours and a sharp increase in evening energy demand. This dissertation investigates the potential of PV-BESS systems to mitigate this issue by combining both self-consumption and energy arbitrage, with case studies in Cardiff schools. Two systems were analysed: PV-Only and PV-BESS. PV-Only systems were sized to ensure generation did not exceed peak midday power consumption during the summer term, while PV-BESS systems were designed to have a self-consumption rate (SCR) of 90% during occupation days and a battery utilisation rate of 45%. Surplus energy was handled differently depending on the system and day of the year. PV-Only systems injected surplus into the grid without remuneration. PV-BESS systems stored surplus energy for later self-consumption during occupation days and sold excess during high price hours on weekends and holidays. Typical relative capacities obtained for PV-Only systems ranged from 0.12 to 0.20 kWp/MWh/year. For PV-BESS systems, relative capacities were between 0.41 and 0.69 kWp/MWh/year and between 1.0 and 1.7 kWh/kWp for photovoltaic and battery systems, respectively. Technical performance was evaluated using annual self-consumption and self-sufficiency rates (SSR). PV-Only systems achieved annual SCRs of 83% to 90% and SSRs of 11% to 18%, while PVBESS systems reached annual SCRs between 72% and 76% and SSRs from 32% to 43%. Financial analysis demonstrated that PV-Only systems consistently achieved profitability indexes (PIs) above 1 and discounted payback periods (DPBPs) of 15 to 21 years. In contrast, PV-BESS systems failed to achieve profitability under current cost conditions. However, when CAPEX decreased to 900 €/kWp for PV and 50 €/kWh for BESS, PIs surpassed 1 and DPBPs shortened to 21-24 years.
Descrição
Tese de Mestrado, Engenharia da Energia e Ambiente, 2025, Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências
Palavras-chave
PV-BESS Self-Consumption Rate Self-Sufficiency Rate