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Relationship between government debt and economic growth in Brazil
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A dissertação "Relação entre a dívida pública e o crescimento econômico no Brasil" fornece novos intuições sobre a relação entre a dívida pública e a taxa de crescimento do PIB no Brasil. Aplicamos os testes de causalidade de Granger, em análises multivariadas e bivariadas usando, respectivamente, as metodologias VEC e ARDL. Utilizamos dados mensais do período de janeiro de 1998 a novembro de 2019. Também foi considerada a interação entre outras variáveis como taxa de juros, taxa de inflação, taxa de câmbio, Índice de Emerging Market Bond Index Plus (Embi +) e superávit primário.
As conclusões mais relevantes são: Rácio da Dívida e taxa de crescimento do PIB têm uma relação de causalidade de Granger bidirecional. A dívida pode melhorar o crescimento no curto prazo e se tornar prejudicial no longo prazo. Além disso, a taxa de crescimento do PIB sempre reduz a dívida, tanto no curto quanto no longo prazo. A dinâmica entre dívida e crescimento no longo prazo é influenciada pela interação com a taxa de inflação, a taxa de câmbio e Embi +.
The dissertation "Relationship Between Government Debt and Economic Growth in Brazil" provides new insights on the relationship between the public debt and the GDP growth rate in Brazil. We applied Granger causality tests, in multivariate and bivariate analyses using respectively VEC and ARDL methodologies. We used monthly data over the period of January 1998 until November 2019. The interaction between other variables such as interest rate, inflation rate, exchange rate, Emerging Market Bond Index Plus (Embi+) and primary surplus was considered as well. The most relevant findings are summarized as follows: Debt-to-GDP and GDP growth rate have a bi-directional Granger causality relationship. Debt can improve growth in the short run and become harmful in the long run. Also, GDP growth rate always reduces debt, both in the short and long run. The dynamic between public debt and economic growth in the long run is influenced by the interaction with the inflation rate, the exchange rate and the Embi+.
The dissertation "Relationship Between Government Debt and Economic Growth in Brazil" provides new insights on the relationship between the public debt and the GDP growth rate in Brazil. We applied Granger causality tests, in multivariate and bivariate analyses using respectively VEC and ARDL methodologies. We used monthly data over the period of January 1998 until November 2019. The interaction between other variables such as interest rate, inflation rate, exchange rate, Emerging Market Bond Index Plus (Embi+) and primary surplus was considered as well. The most relevant findings are summarized as follows: Debt-to-GDP and GDP growth rate have a bi-directional Granger causality relationship. Debt can improve growth in the short run and become harmful in the long run. Also, GDP growth rate always reduces debt, both in the short and long run. The dynamic between public debt and economic growth in the long run is influenced by the interaction with the inflation rate, the exchange rate and the Embi+.
Descrição
Mestrado em Economia Monetária e Financeira
Palavras-chave
Causalidade de Granger VEC ARDL dívida pública crescimento econômico Granger causality public debt economic growth
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Silva, Ágatha Lechner da (2020). "Relationship between government debt and economic growth in Brazil". Dissertação de Mestrado. Universidade de Lisboa. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão.
Editora
Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão