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The impact of dynamic tariffs on self-consumption systems
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Resumo(s)
The Portuguese energy sector, in line with broader European trends, has undergone profound transformations in recent decades driven by technological, economic, and geopolitical factors. The increasing penetration of renewable energy in the national grid, and disruptive events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have reshaped the supply-demand balance and, consequently, the electricity prices. Since the post-pandemic, residential consumers in Portugal have been able to adopt a dynamic tariff, which directly links the electricity price to the hourly day-ahead market. While it exposes consumers to market volatility, it also opens room for shifting demand to low-price periods. However, in Portugal, the growing PV deployment lowered daytime prices, diminishing the value of self-consumed generation, contrasting with Time of Use tariffs which typically assign higher costs to the same period. This dissertation quantitatively assesses the impact of dynamic electricity tariffs on the profitability of residential self-consumption systems in Portugal, focusing on the interaction between tariffs, PV generation, and storage. Using the Calliope energy system modeling framework, four household demand profiles and three tariff structures—fixed, bi-hourly, and dynamic (indexed to the Iberian market, MIBEL), were simulated for 2024. Results show that tariff design strongly influences system performance. The bi-hourly tariff proved most favorable, aligning PV generation with high-price periods and enabling greater installed capacity, higher self-sufficiency, and shorter payback times. The dynamic tariff, in turn, is less effective in promoting the deployment of PV capacity, as daytime PV production is devalued due to low market prices. Integrating BESS improved performance under variable tariffs, but economic viability remains limited by high battery costs. However, when battery costs are halved, dynamic tariffs are more appealing to PV and BESS deployment, since enough BESS can be deployed to make the most of the market volatility. Overall, dynamic tariffs represent both an opportunity and a challenge: they can promote active demand management and energy efficiency but require optimized operation strategies and cost reductions in storage to fully realize their potential.
Descrição
Tese de Mestrado, Engenharia da Energia e Ambiente, 2025, Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências
Palavras-chave
Dynamic Tariffs Photovoltaic Energy Battery Storage Self-consumption