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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
The Aedes aegypti mosquito is the main vector for several diseases of global importance,
such as dengue and yellow fever. This species was first identified on Madeira Island in
2005, and between 2012 and 2013 was responsible for an outbreak of dengue that affected
several thousand people. However, the potential distribution of the species on the island
remains poorly investigated. Here we assess the suitability of current and future climatic
conditions to the species on the island and complement this assessment with estimates of
the suitability of land use and human settlement conditions. We used four modelling algorithms (boosted regression trees, generalized additive models, generalized linear models
and random forest) and data on the distribution of the species worldwide and across the
island. For both climatic and non-climatic factors, suitability estimates predicted the current
distribution of the species with good accuracy (mean area under the Receiver Operating
Characteristic curve = 0.88 ±0.06, mean true skill statistic = 0.72 ±0.1). Minimum temperature of coldest month was the most influential climatic predictor, while human population
density, residential housing density and public spaces were the most influential predictors
describing land use and human settlement conditions. Suitable areas under current climates
are predicted to occur mainly in the warmer and densely inhabited coastal areas of the
southern part of the island, where the species is already established. By mid-century (2041–
2060), the extent of climatically suitable areas is expected to increase, mainly towards
higher altitudes and in the eastern part of the island. Our work shows that ongoing efforts to
monitor and prevent the spread of Ae. aegypti on Madeira Island will have to increasingly
consider the effects of climate change.
Description
Keywords
Yellow fever mosquito Aedes aegypti Distribution Madeira Island Portugal
Pedagogical Context
Citation
Santos, J. M., Capinha, C., Rocha, J., & Sousa, C. A. (2022). The current and future distribution of the yellow fever mosquito (Aedes aegypti) on Madeira Island. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 16(9), e0010715. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010715
Publisher
PLOS