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Mapping material stocks and embodied greenhouse gas emissions in Norwegian residential buildings
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A disponibilidade de dados fiáveis sobre stocks de materiais e emissões associadas a edifícios residenciais na Noruega é limitada, tanto a nível nacional como municipal, o que restringe a capacidade de planear a gestão de recursos e as políticas de mitigação climática. Esta tese aborda essa lacuna quantificando os stocks de materiais e as emissões incorporadas de gases com efeito de estufa em edifícios residenciais noruegueses à escala municipal. Para tal, foram compiladas intensidades de materiais por coortes de construção e tipos de edifícios, combinadas com dados sobre fogos, edifícios e área útil aquecida. Para lidar com a incerteza dos dados, aplicaram-se simulações de Monte Carlo com distribuições triangulares baseadas em valores mínimos, máximos e modais. Os resultados indicam que o betão substituto domina os stocks de materiais com 139,3 Mt a nível nacional, seguido da madeira e derivados (43,8 Mt) e do betão convencional (39,8 Mt). Apesar de representar o menor stock, o aço de construção é responsável pelas emissões mais elevadas associadas à produção (21,8 Mt CO₂e), enquanto a madeira e derivados contribuem com 5,35 Mt CO₂e e o betão substituto apenas com 0,56 Mt CO₂e. A análise ao nível do município mostra que áreas rurais, com baixa densidade populacional e predominância de moradias unifamiliares, apresentam as emissões per capita mais elevadas. A Análise de Componentes Principais evidencia padrões socioeconómicos e geográficos, associando educação, rendimento e latitude a stocks e emissões. Este estudo disponibiliza uma metodologia reprodutível para análises consistentes e espacialmente explícitas, complementada por um painel interativo de apoio às decisões municipais e nacionais em matéria de gestão de recursos e política climática.
Reliable data on material stocks and related emissions in residential buildings is lacking at national and municipal scales in Norway, which limits the ability to plan resource management and climate mitigation policies. This thesis addresses this gap by quantifying material stocks and embodied greenhouse gas emissions in Norwegian residential buildings at the municipal level. Material intensities were compiled for construction cohorts and building types and combined with data on dwellings, buildings and heated floor area. To address data uncertainty, Monte Carlo simulations were applied using triangular probability distributions based on minimum, maximum and mode values. Results show that concrete surrogate dominates material stocks with 139.3 Mt nationwide, followed by wood and wood products with 43.8 Mt and concrete with 39.8 Mt. Despite lower stock, construction-grade steel accounts for the highest production-related emissions with 21.8 Mt CO₂e, while wood and wood products contribute 5.35 Mt CO₂e and concrete surrogate only 0.56 Mt CO₂e. Municipal-level analysis reveals that rural areas with low population density and a predominance of single-family houses exhibit the highest per-capita emissions. Principal Component Analysis shows socio-economic and geographic patterns, with education, income and latitude associated with material stocks and emissions. This study provides a reproducible methodological framework for consistent, spatially explicit analysis and comprehensive dashboard to support municipal and national decisions on resource management and climate policy.
Reliable data on material stocks and related emissions in residential buildings is lacking at national and municipal scales in Norway, which limits the ability to plan resource management and climate mitigation policies. This thesis addresses this gap by quantifying material stocks and embodied greenhouse gas emissions in Norwegian residential buildings at the municipal level. Material intensities were compiled for construction cohorts and building types and combined with data on dwellings, buildings and heated floor area. To address data uncertainty, Monte Carlo simulations were applied using triangular probability distributions based on minimum, maximum and mode values. Results show that concrete surrogate dominates material stocks with 139.3 Mt nationwide, followed by wood and wood products with 43.8 Mt and concrete with 39.8 Mt. Despite lower stock, construction-grade steel accounts for the highest production-related emissions with 21.8 Mt CO₂e, while wood and wood products contribute 5.35 Mt CO₂e and concrete surrogate only 0.56 Mt CO₂e. Municipal-level analysis reveals that rural areas with low population density and a predominance of single-family houses exhibit the highest per-capita emissions. Principal Component Analysis shows socio-economic and geographic patterns, with education, income and latitude associated with material stocks and emissions. This study provides a reproducible methodological framework for consistent, spatially explicit analysis and comprehensive dashboard to support municipal and national decisions on resource management and climate policy.
Descrição
Dissertação de Mestrado, Ciência de dados em Agricultura, Alimentação, Floresta e Ambiente, 2025, Universidade de Lisboa, Instituto Superior de Agronomia.
Palavras-chave
quadro metodológico mapeamento de stocks de materiais emissões incorporadas de carbono parque habitacional quantificação da incerteza methodological framework material stock mapping embodied carbon emissions residential stock uncertainty quantification