Unpacking Party Youth Organizations: Goals and Organization in European Democracies

Funder

Organizational Unit

Publications

Until another party do us part? Party members’ electoral disloyalty in Portugal

Publication . Ferrinho Lopes, Hugo; Lisi, Marco

This article investigates whether and why party members sometimes vote for other parties. Although often taken as parties’ most loyal voters, recent evidence suggests that members’ vote is not unconditional. Using novel survey data from Portugal, we examine rates of defection by members, test the validity of existing explanations and assess the extent to which traditional theories of party membership can account for such behavior. We argue that ideological incongruence, satisfaction with intra-party functioning, incentive structure and party activism play a key role in explaining why a member casts a vote for another party while maintaining a formal connection with their own party. Findings support the impact of internal discontentment and engagement in party activities, as well as instrumental motivations for members of smaller parties. We also explore how motivations relate to strategic considerations in driving defection. Results differ across parties, suggesting the importance of of party models and legacy. They have important implications for party membership and mobilization, as well as for future research on membership decline and the consequences of party cohesion and factionalism.

2025Journal article

Open access

An unexpected Socialist majority: the 2022 Portuguese general elections

Publication . Ferrinho Lopes, Hugo

The Portuguese elections of early 2022 took place during the most severe wave of COVID-19 infections in Portugal. Nevertheless, the pandemic was not the most important issue in the campaign. Although opinion polls forecast a narrow election, the Socialists gained their second absolute majority in history. The electoral results marked a breakthrough for the radical right and Liberals. Every other traditional party had its worst electoral night in democratic history. The Christian Democrats and the Greens ended up exiting the parliament. The 2022 general elections saw the Socialists rise to dominance and the end of the Portuguese exceptionalism in keeping the radical right at arm’s length.

2023Journal article

Open access