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Biogeography and global flows of 100 major alien fungal and fungus-like oomycete pathogens
Publication . Schertler, Anna; Lenzner, Bernd; Dullinger, Stefan; Moser, Dietmar; Bufford, Jennifer L.; Ghelardini, Luisa; Santini, Alberto; Capinha, César; Monteiro, Miguel; Reino, Luís; Wingfield, Michael J.; Seebens, Hanno; Thines, Marco; Wayne Dawson, Wayne Dawson; Kleunen, Mark van; Kreft, Holger; Pergl, Jan; Pyšek, Petr; Weigelt, Patrick; Winter, Marten; Essl, Franz
Aim: Spreading infectious diseases associated with introduced pathogens can have devastating effects on native biota and human livelihoods. We analyse the global distribution of 100 major alien fungal and oomycete pathogens with substantial socio-economic and environmental impacts and examine their taxonomy, ecological characteristics, temporal accumulation trajectories, regional hot- and coldspots of taxon richness and taxon flows between continents. Location: Global. Taxon: Alien/cryptogenic fungi and fungus-like oomycetes, pathogenic to plants or animals. Methods: To identify over/underrepresented classes and phyla, we performed Chi2 tests of independence. To describe spatial patterns, we calculated the region-wise richness and identified hot- and coldspots, defined as residuals after correcting taxon richness for region area and sampling effort via a quasi-Poisson regression. We examined the relationship with environmental and socio-economic drivers with a multiple linear regression and evaluated a potential island effect. Regional first records were pooled over 20-year periods, and for global flows the links between the native range to the alien regions were mapped. Results: Peronosporomycetes (Oomycota) were overrepresented among taxa and regional taxon richness was positively correlated with area and sampling effort. While no island effect was found, likely due to host limitations, hotspots were correlated with human modification of terrestrial land, per capita gross domestic product, temperate and tropical forest biomes, and orobiomes. Regional first records have increased steeply in recent decades. While Europe and Northern America were major recipients, about half of the taxa originate from Asia. Main Conclusions: We highlight the putative importance of anthropogenic drivers, such as land use providing a conducive environment, contact opportunities and susceptible hosts, as well as economic wealth likely increasing colonisation pressure. While most taxa were associated with socio-economic impacts, possibly partly due to a bias in research focus, about a third show substantial impacts to both socio-economy and the environment, underscoring the importance of maintaining a wholescale perspective across natural and managed systems.
Potential for invasion of traded birds under climate and land-cover change
Publication . Naimi, Babak; Capinha, César; Ribeiro, Joana; Rahbek, Carsten; Strubbe, Diederik; Reino, Luís; Araújo, Miguel B.
Humans have moved species away from their native ranges since the Neolithic, but
globalization accelerated the rate at which species are being moved. We fitted more
than half million distribution models for 610 traded bird species on the CITES list to
examine the separate and joint effects of global climate and land-cover
change on
their potential end-of-
century
distributions. We found that climate-induced
suitability
for modelled invasive species increases with latitude, because traded birds are mainly
of tropical origin and much of the temperate region is ‘tropicalizing.’ Conversely, the
tropics are becoming more arid, thus limiting the potential from cross-continental
invasion
by tropical species. This trend is compounded by forest loss around the tropics
since most traded birds are forest dwellers. In contrast, net gains in forest area across
the temperate region could compound climate change effects and increase the potential
for colonization of low-latitude
birds. Climate change has always led to regional
redistributions of species, but the combination of human transportation, climate, and
land-cover
changes will likely accelerate the redistribution of species globally, increasing
chances of alien species successfully invading non-native
lands. Such process of
biodiversity homogenization can lead to emergence of non-analogue
communities
with unknown environmental and socioeconomic consequences
Avaliação da concordância de modelos de adequabilidade ambiental para a presença do mosquito-tigre (Aedes albopictus) na Europa
Publication . Oliveira, Sandra; Rocha, Jorge; Sousa, Carla A.; Capinha, César
O consenso entre modelos de adequabilidade para a presença do mosquito-tigre na Europa foi analisado, utilizando 7 modelos representando condições atuais e 5 com projeções climáticas futuras. A partir da harmonização e conversão dos resultados dos modelos, foram definidas três classes: elevada adequabilidade, baixa adequabilidade e incerteza, tendo em conta o número de modelos com nível de adequabilidade equivalente. A análise foi depois aplicada especificamente em 65 áreas urbanas. Atualmente, 47% do território apresenta elevada adequabilidade, em particular no sul e oeste. No futuro, estima-se uma expansão da adequabilidade elevada para a Europa central e do Norte, incluindo 83% das áreas urbanas analisadas.
Native and alien grassland diversity respond differently to environmental and anthropogenic drivers across spatial scales
Publication . Bergamin, Rodrigo Scarton; Ascensão, Fernando; Capinha, César; Bastazini, Vinicius Augusto Galvão; Andrade, Bianca Ott; Boldrini, Ilsi Iob; Lezama, Felipe; Altesor, Alice; Perelman, Susana; Overbeck, Gerhard Ernst
Abstract
Aims: To identify environmental and anthropogenic drivers of alpha-and
beta-diversity
for native and alien plant species.
Location: Río de la Plata grasslands, South America (Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay;
27.3–39.1°
S, 50.1–66.5°
W).
Methods: We assembled a data set of 597 vegetation plots distributed across the Río
de la Plata grasslands. To assess the drivers of native and alien alpha-diversity
(species
richness), we performed a generalized least-squares
regression using environmental
and anthropogenic predictors. We evaluated differences in beta-diversity
using
Simpson's pairwise dissimilarity between pairs of plots and used multiple regression
on distance matrixes to investigate environmental and anthropogenic drivers on compositional
dissimilarity for both native and alien plant species.
Results: Native species richness was higher in sites with less demanding environmental
conditions, such as lower precipitation seasonality and soils with higher cation exchange
capacity. Numbers of alien species were positively related to soil pH, cropland
density and road density and negatively to precipitation seasonality, mean temperatures
and soil cation exchange capacity. The compositional dissimilarity was similar
for native and alien species assemblages (mean ± SD: 0.64 ± 0.16 and 0.64 ± 0.35
respectively). Areas having similar climates and being geographically close shared more taxonomically similar assemblages, for both native and alien assemblages, while
soil had disparate effects. Compositional dissimilarity of alien plants decreased with
increasing road density.
Conclusions: Our results highlight a grassland ecosystem where native species richness
is still shaped only by environmental factors, but both sets of factors influence
its composition. On the other hand, alien plants carry a strong signal of both environmental
and human factors. As time progresses the number of alien species tend
to increase, eroding the patterns of native biodiversity. To avoid this, efforts should
be made to reduce road encroachment and the conversion of natural grasslands into
croplands.
Spatiotemporal Dynamics of COVID-19 Infections in Mainland Portugal
Publication . Silva, Melissa; Betco, Iuria; Capinha, César; Roquette, Rita; Viana, Cláudia M.; Rocha, Jorge
The World Health Organization declared COVID-19 as a pandemic disease on 12 March 2020. Currently, this disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus remains one of the biggest public health problems in the world. Thus, it is essential to apply methods that enable a better understanding of the virus diffusion processes, not only at the spatial level but also at the spatiotemporal one. To that end, we tried to understand the spatial distribution of COVID-19 pathology in continental Portugal at the municipal level and to comprehend how mobility influences transmission. We used autocorrelation indices such as Getis-Ord (with Euclidian distance and commuting values), Local Moran, and a new hybrid approach. Likewise, aiming to identify the spatiotemporal patterns of the virus propagation by using Man–Kendall statistics, we found that most hotspots of infected individuals occur in the municipalities of metropolitan areas. The spatiotemporal analysis identified most of the municipalities as oscillating hotspots.
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Entidade financiadora
Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
Programa de financiamento
CEEC IND 2017
Número da atribuição
CEECIND/02037/2017/CP1405/CT0002