Forest Research Centre

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Publications

Anthromes dispaying evidence of weekly cycles in active fire data cover 70% of the global land surface

Publication . Cardoso Pereira, José Miguel; Turkman, M.A. Amaral; Turkman, K.F.; Oom, D.

Across the globe, human activities have been gaining importance relatively to climate and ecology as the main controls on fire regimes and consequently human activity became an important driver of the frequency, extent and intensity of vegetation burning worldwide. Our objective in the present study is to look for weekly cycles in vegetation fire activity at global scale as evidence of human agency, relying on the original MODIS active fire detections at 1 km spatial resolution (MCD14ML) and using novel statistical methodologies to detect significant periodicities in time series data. We tested the hypotheses that global fire activity displays weekly cycles and that the weekday with the fewest fires is Sunday. We also assessed the effect of land use and land cover on weekly fire cycle significance by testing those hypotheses separately for the Villages, Settlements, Croplands, Rangelands, Seminatural, and Wildlands anthromes. Based on a preliminary data analysis of the daily global active fire counts periodogram, we developed an harmonic regression model for the mean function of daily fire activity and assumed a linear model for the de-seasonalized time series. For inference purposes, we used a Bayesian methodology and constructed a simultaneous 95% credible band for the mean function. The hypothesis of a Sunday weekly minimum was directly investigated by computing the probabilities that the mean functions of every weekday (Monday to Saturday) are inside the credible band corresponding to mean Sunday fire activity. Since these probabilities are small, there is statistical evidence of significantly fewer fires on Sunday than on the other days of the week. Cropland, rangeland, and seminatural anthromes, which cover 70% of the global land area and account for 94% of the active fires analysed, display weekly cycles in fire activity. Due to lower land management intensity and less strict control over fire size and duration, weekly cycles in Rangelands and Seminatural anthromes, which jointly account for 53.46% of all fires, although statistically significant are weaker than those detected in Croplands

2019Journal article

Open access

The current policy focus shift from a sectoral to a territorial governance of wildfire reduction is aligned with forest owners’ preferences

Publication . Canadas, Maria João; Leal, Miguel; Novais, Ana; Ribeiro, Paulo Flores; Santos, José Lima

Land management for wildfire reduction has been said to require new governance arrangements that ensure the coordination at the local level among landowners and between them and other relevant private and public actors. To promote a shift in the policy approach to wildfire mitigation from the current focus on fuel management, within the forestry sector, to a more effective cross-sectoral landscape transformation, this governance problem takes on even greater importance. Given the diversity of owners within a territory, our main goal is to identify a governance arrangement that match the heterogeneity of owners’ preferences for alternative governance options. Based on a face-to-face survey of 497 owners in a fire-prone region, four types of owners have been identified using a cluster analysis based on management practices and socioeconomic context. Our results show that the type of owner helps explaining their preferences for alternative governance options. Owners that are more active (e.g. regular forest interventions) and have stronger links to the forestry sector, through regular timber sales and participation in forest owner organizations, favor the keeping of individual management over the delegation of management on others or the renting or selling of the land. Although many of these owners see forest organizations alone as the best entities to promote wildfire mitigation, the majority would prefer solutions that also integrate local authorities. Owners that are less active (e.g. no forest interventions) and have weaker links to the sector (no timber sales and no enrollment in forest organizations) consider renting or selling the land, and view a combination of both local authorities and forest organizations as the best solution to promote wildfire reduction at the local level. We conclude that a multi-actor (public-private) territorially-based governance model fits both the required transition in the policy approach and the diverse preferences of different owner types.

2024Journal article

Open access

Bio-economic process-based modelling methodology for measuring and evaluating the ecosystem services provided by agroforestry systems

Publication . Crous-Duran, Josep; Palma, João Henrique Nunes; Tomé, Margarida; Graves, Anil Robert

Agroforestry integrates woody vegetation with crop and/or animal production. This combination can benefit from ecological and economic interactions that allow better use of natural resources and improved economic performance. But despite financial support offered through policy, the implementation of new agroforestry systems has not been widespread in the European Union. This thesis aimed to develop additional scientific knowledge on the potential of agroforestry systems in terms of productivity and environmental benefits. The method consisted in improving a bio-physical process-based model (Yield-SAFE) and an integrated bio-economic model (Farm-SAFE) and using both to model four different agroforestry systems in different edaphoclimatic conditions in Europe. Four different agroforestry tree-densities were compared to no-tree and tree-only monoculture alternatives. The results showed that: 1) in terms of productivity, the inclusion of trees in agricultural land increases the overall accumulated energy but the accumulated energy per tree decreases as the tree density of trees increases; 2) agroforestry options present a greater capacity of reducing soil erosion, nitrate leaching and increases the carbon sequestration; 3) agroforestry systems can act as more sustainable methods of food production and 4) options without trees are more interesting financially but these option are also the most polluting. And even though the consideration of a monetary valuation of the environmental services offered, agroforestry options would just become more interesting if there is a change on how public financial help is allocated to the sector. The findings of this work reflect what has been previously seen in scientific literature, particularly in terms of the capacity of agroforestry systems to be more productive than monoculture systems, whilst at the same time providing environmental benefits. However, relatively low profitability means that they still fail to attract farmers, the main agents of agroforestry uptake and currently, arable and forestry tend to receive higher subsidies making these land uses more attractive to farmers but considering environmental benefits would make agroforestry a more interesting option

2022Doctoral thesis

Open access

Mapping cork caliper in Portugal using percentile regression

Publication . Paulo, Joana Amaral; Faias, Sónia; Tomé, Margarida; Firmino, Paulo

2019Conference object

Open access

Leaf Economic and Hydraulic Traits Signal Disparate Climate Adaptation Patterns in Two Co-Occurring Woodland Eucalypts

Publication . Prober, Suzanne M.; Potts, Brad M.; Harrison, Peter A.; Wiehl, Georg; Bailey, Tanya G.; Costa e Silva, João; Price, Meridy R.; Speijers, Jane; Steane, Dorothy A.; Vaillancourt, René E.

With climate change impacting trees worldwide, enhancing adaptation capacity has become an important goal of provenance translocation strategies for forestry, ecological renovation, and biodiversity conservation. Given that not every species can be studied in detail, it is important to understand the extent to which climate adaptation patterns can be generalised across species, in terms of the selective agents and traits involved. We here compare patterns of genetic-based population (co)variation in leaf economic and hydraulic traits, climate–trait associations, and genomic differentiation of two widespread tree species (Eucalyptus pauciflora and E. ovata). We studied 2-yearold trees growing in a common-garden trial established with progeny from populations of both species, pair-sampled from 22 localities across their overlapping native distribution in Tasmania, Australia. Despite originating from the same climatic gradients, the species differed in their levels of population variance and trait covariance, patterns of population variation within each species were uncorrelated, and the species had different climate–trait associations. Further, the pattern of genomic differentiation among populations was uncorrelated between species, and population differentiation in leaf traits was mostly uncorrelated with genomic differentiation. We discuss hypotheses to explain this decoupling of patterns and propose that the choice of seed provenances for climatebased plantings needs to account for multiple dimensions of climate change unless species-specific information is available

2022Journal article

Open access