Portuguese Economic Journal, 2020, Volume 19, nº 3
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- Dynamic spillover effects among tourism, economic growth and macro-finance risk factorsPublication . Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain; Ferrer, RománThis paper examines spillover effects among international tourism growth, economic growth and a group of major macroeconomic and financial variables in the US. The empirical results show significant interactions among tourism growth, economic growth and the selected macro-finance factors, which have notably increased following the intensification of the global financial crisis in the fall of 2008. Furthermore, international tourism growth in the US appears as the main net receiver of spillovers from macroeconomic factors, thus providing evidence contrary to the empirical validity of the tourism-led growth hypothesis for the US. However, real GDP growth is identified as a net transmitter of spillovers to the tourism growth, which supports, at least partly, the economic-driven tourism growth hypothesis for the US. Novel to the literature, global economic policy uncertainty is the most important transmitter of shocks to US tourism growth, suggesting that heightened uncertainty about economic policy may have especially harmful effects on international tourism flows.
- Causal interactions among tourism, foreign direct investment, domestic credits, and economic growth : evidence from selected Mediterranean countriesPublication . Tecel, Ayhan; Katircioğlu, Salih; Taheri, Elham; Bekun, Festus VictorThis study explores the nexus between tourism and economic growth in countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea while controlling for foreign direct investment and domestic credits as additional variables within a multivariate panel framework. Empirical evidence is based on annual data from 1995 to 2016 for a panel of 14 selected countries around the Mediterranean Sea region. The findings from the bootstrap panel cointegration test proposed by Westerlund (2007) confirm the long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables under inspection. Subsequently, the Panel Pooled Mean Group Autoregressive Distributed model (PMG-ARDL) estimations suggest positively significant relationships between tourism and economic growth both in short-term, and long-term periods. Thus, this study joins the group of studies that lend support to the tourism-led growth hypothesis. This result was further substantiated by the results of the Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) causality analysis, as feedback causality was observed between tourism and economic growth, while unidirectional causality was seen from foreign direct investment to economic growth. That is in support of the foreign direct investment-driven economic growth hypothesis. Strikingly, no causal relationship was observed between domestic credits and economic growth.
- Model for measuring carrying capacity in inhabited tourism destinationsPublication . Fernández-Villarán, Asunción; Espinosa, Nagore; Abad, Marina; Goytia, AnaSustainable development of tourist destinations, of any scale, such as countries, regions or municipalities, is hampered by the challenges that sustainability measurement faces. Although progress is being made in the measurement of tourism standards, such as IRTS 2008, by the UN and UNWTO, measurement of tourism at the subnational level still lacks international standards. In addition, measuring tourism sustainability means even more difficulties for tourism destinations, since standards have not yet been internationally agreed and resources and skills to develop them are scarce. To avoid or mitigate the excess of tourists, destinations that seek sustainable tourism development often include measures of tourism carrying capacity as part of their management processes. The methodology for measuring tourism carrying capacity of tourism resources, when seeking to obtain a maximum number of visitors that a destination can accept, is abundant. This is the case of those resources with clear entry and exit points. However, when an inhabited tourism destination wishes to avoid or mitigate the problems of tourism carrying capacity excess for the entire destination and not just of a tourism resource, from a management perspective and without pointing to a single figure, the literature on methodologies in this regard is scarce. This gap is addressed in this paper, as it proposes a methodology to measure tourism carrying capacity in inhabited tourism destinations through alerts that could help destination managers to act.
- Measuring the economic contribution of tourism to destinations within an input-output framework : some methodological issuesPublication . Artal-Tur, Andrés; Navarro-Azorín, José Miguel; Ramos-Parreño, José MaríaThe input-output model is a traditional tool employed in the literature for measuring the contribution of an economic activity within a given territory. In the case of tourism, this methodological framework has been used to estimate the contribution of the tourism sector as a whole, and for specific products in the tourism market, such as cruise visits. The present paper computes the economic contribution of international tourism arriving at three major destinations on the Mediterranean coast of Spain; namely, Barcelona, Palma de Mallorca and Alicante. For each destination, both the country-level and regional-based input-output tables were employed, using the INTERTIO project, a regional input-output framework developed for the Spanish economy by the Lawrence Klein Institute of the Autonomous University of Madrid. The results show important differences in the magnitude of the computed economic effects between the country and regional approaches. To shed more light on the issue, we identify the main sources driving such dissimilar results, including the role of backward linkages of industries and the differing sectoral distributions of initial economic effects. Finally, we point to the role played by specific sectors in the model in amplifying the initial effects by using a centrality analysis of hub-and-authority effects. The methodological discussion in the paper helps to highlight the need for using the regional input-output model when available, and the other additional methodological tools we provide throughout the study for more accurately computing the economic impact of tourism for particular regions or destinations.
- Online word-of-mouth and market structurePublication . Santos, Carlos DanielHotels adjust their product offerings depending on demand and competition faced. In this article I document the increase in average hotel quality as measured by online ratings, following the 50% increase in the number of tourists between 2008 and 2011. This change in quality is heterogeneous across hotel type. An increase in quality from high quality hotels positively influences other high quality hotels while increasing quality from low quality hotels positively influences other low quality hotels. Effects across quality levels (i.e. low on high and vice-versa) are insignificant. Finally, I quantify the gains from online ratings. Using a nested logit demand model I estimate that a one standard deviation increase in rating is associated with a 27% increase in demand. As a comparison, a 1 star increase in hotel class generates an approximate 70% increase in demand. Furthermore ratings are substantially more important for hotels with less stars, confirming the predictions that hotels with a lower signal, have more to gain from the existence of online user generated content.
- Tourism and regional development: a spatial econometric model for Portugal at municipal levelPublication . Santos, Luis Delfim; Vieira, Ana CatarinaThis study examines the importance of tourism as a factor for regional economic development in Mainland Portugal, emphasizing the inter-regional spatial spillover effects. A spatial analysis of the main variables of the tourism sector revealed strong evidence of positive spatial autocorrelation across the municipalities of Portugal. A significant spatial clustering of these activities on coastal locations was identified, leading to the formation of hot spots in coastal regions and cold spots in inland regions. Furthermore, this work specifies spatial econometric models aiming to estimate the relevance of the tourism sector in regional economic development, on a municipal level. The econometric model, which highlights the role performed by interregional spatial spillovers, regresses the regional gross value added against a group of variables, which reflect the contribution of the tourism sector and, furthermore, control variables for the classic determinants of income, for the 278 municipalities of Portugal. The results show that tourism is a significant driver of regional economic development. Moreover, they revealed the presence of positive and significant inter-regional spillover effects, which strongly enhance tourism’s economic impact.
- Modeling the impact of wars and terrorism on tourism demand in Kurdistan region of IraqPublication . Omer, Ahmed Muhamad; Yeşiltaş, MehmetRecent political instabilities in the Middle East have led to strong negative impacts on the tourism sector. The aim of this study is to investigate the extent and the impact of political instability on tourism development in Kurdistan region of Iraq (KRI). The impact of previous wars and incidents including the most recent events by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) on tourism demand is quantitatively evaluated. Unit roots and structural breaks are detected relating political instabilities with significant tourist declines. A systematic comparison on the effect of terrorist attacks and wars on tourist arrivals is performed by employing a multiple regression model using monthly time series data from January 2003 to September 2018. The analysis revealed stronger negative impact of wars in comparison to terrorist attacks. The novelty of this study lies in its ability to establish that the impacts of war have far reaching consequences that last for at least three consecutive years as compared to short negative effects of terrorist attacks. Our findings imply that political instability, especially wars, leads to large safety concerns in the tourist destinations.