Portuguese Economic Journal, 2023, Volume 22, nº 2
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- The effect of monetary policy on household consumption expenditures in Portugal : a decomposition of the transmission channelPublication . Duarte, João B.; Pereira, NunoWe follow Slacalek et al. (2020) monetary transmission decomposition approach to investigate the effects of monetary policy shocks on household consumption expenditures in Portugal since joining the euro area. Extending their analysis to Portugal, we quantify the monetary policy transmission channels using a combination of micro-level household data from the 3rd wave of the Household Finance and Consumption Survey and structural vector autoregressions estimated using aggregate-level data and identified using highfrequency data around monetary policy meetings. We find that the wealthy hand-to-mouth households’ consumption has the most significant reaction to monetary shocks because of extensive housing wealth and net interest rate exposure channels. In addition, due to its large size as a group in the Portuguese economy, we find that the wealthy hand-to-mouth households’ consumption response explains why the aggregate consumption reacts more to monetary shocks in Portugal than in other European countries.
- Education and financial mistakes : the case of avoidable trading fees in stock marketsPublication . Silva, Paulo Pereira da; Mendes, VictorWe study a quasi-natural experiment that altered the structure of commission fee schedules applied to retail investors in the Portuguese stock market in 2003. Using a difference-in-differences analysis, we show that investors with a university degree, financial knowledge and numerical skills demonstrate greater ability and eagerness in adjusting their trading patterns to the new commission schedules. The impact of education was stronger for those lacking trading experience. Investors with a university degree that were more prone to issue small orders before the event were also more eager to scale up their order size.
- Do financial development, foreign direct investment, and economic growth enhance industrial development? Fresh evidence from Sub‑Sahara African countriesPublication . Appiah, Michael; Gyamfi, Bright Akwasi; Adebayo, Tomiwa Sunday; Bekun, Festus VictorThis study investigates the impact of financial development, economic growth, and foreign direct investment on enhancing industrial growth for a panel of selected Sub-Sahara African (SSA) countries from 1990—2017. However, the present study enriches our understanding of financial development by employing a new comprehensive index focused on the accessibility, scope, and productivity of capital systems and banking institutions and incorporated foreign direct investment and economic growth as significant industrial growth drivers in the selected countries. A more robust technique Augmented Mean Group (AMG) and Common Correlated Effect Mean Group (CCEMG), were employed to access the long-run relationship among the understudy variables. Further empirical results shows that financial development and economic growth enhance industrial development with finance exhibiting signifcance while foreign direct investment is seen as adverse. Moreover, a two-way causality was obtained between industrialization and financial development while both foreign direct investment and economic growth had a one-way causality relationship with industrialization. Thus, our study implies that the government officials within these countries must provide a suitable environment for the public, private partnerships, i.e. private sector, which is the backbone for industrial development.
- The interaction effects of rising life expectancy and the public pension burden on aggregate savings and economic growthPublication . He, Lei; Wang, ZhengqiWe evaluate the interaction effects of rising life expectancy and the public pension burden on economic growth by proposing a theoretical model based on an overlapping generations framework. Testable implications from the theoretical model are that the public pension burden impairs the positive effect of increased life expectancy on the aggregate savings rate in the same period and reduces the positive effect of life expectancy on the economic growth rate in the next period. Meanwhile, rising life expectancy intensifies the negative effect of the public pension burden on the aggregate savings rate and economic growth. A panel data set on OECD countries is used to provide empirical support for these predictions. Our results reveal the complicated relationships among rising life expectancy, a high public pension burden, and growth. It would be valuable for the government sector to adjust its spending to deal with fiscal pressure from public pensions.
- Using the UTAUT model to analyze user intention to accept electronic payment systems in SerbiaPublication . Tomić, Nenad; Kalinić, Zoran; Todorović, VioletaThis study applies The Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) to explain the acceptance of electronic payment systems in Serbia. We used extended model that incorporates several external variables, such as perceived security, trust, privacy, convertibility and financial costs, along with basic UTAUT predictors. The sample comprised of 457 respondents. We applied structural equation modelling to develop the model and draw conclusions. The results showed that performance expectancy, perceived security, trust and social influence had strong positive effects on behavioral intention. Conversely, we found behavioral intention, convertibility and financial costs to be significant drivers of user behavior. We consider the inclusion of convertibility in the model and proving its significance to be the main practical implications of our research, and also suggest to be considered as a factor in models designed for countries with low purchasing power of national currency.
- Local and global indeterminacy and transition dynamics in a growth model with public goodsPublication . Gaspar, José; Garrido‑da‑Silva, Liliana; Vasconcelos, Paulo B.; Afonso, ÓscarThis paper studies local and global indeterminacy and transition dynamics in an endogenous growth model where public goods increase production and the household’s utility. We study the impact on economic growth in the face of valuing public goods and socially conscious economic agents. When public goods are undervalued, the economy steadily converges to a unique low-growth equilibrium. As the utility share of public goods increases, another equilibrium emerges, but the difference between the two growth rates, “low” and “high”, narrows until both equilibria coalesce and disappear, producing a scenario with no convergence on a balanced growth path (BGP). The low-growth equilibrium is stable, and there may be monotonic convergence toward a broadly stable high-growth equilibrium. The economy may also oscillate between growth rates before reaching the high-growth BGP, or may diverge from it. In addition, before the high-growth BGP becomes unstable, the model may exhibit an unstable limit cycle that surrounds it. Moreover, if social consciousness co-varies with the weight of public goods on utility, a homoclinic orbit may emerge that links the low-growth equilibrium to itself.