Portuguese Economic Journal, 2015, Volume 14, Nº 1-3
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- Productive experience and specialization opportunities for Portugal : an empirical assessmentPublication . Freitas, Miguel Lebre de; Nunes, Luis Catela; Neves, Rui Costa; Salvado, SusanaFollowing Hidalgo et al. (Sci Mag 317: 482–487, 2007), we use the structure of international trade to estimate a measure of “revealed relatedness” for each pair of internationally traded products, which intends to capture similarities in terms of the endowments or capabilities they use in production. Our method departs from the original one, in that we run statistical tests of equality in probabilities, instead of computing conditional probabilities. We estimate a matrix of “Revealed Relatedness Indexes” using 2005 data and we then investigate which “upscale” products in which Portugal didn’t develop comparative advantage are more related to products in which the country is currently specialized. The analysis suggests that more than 60 % of Portugal’s “upscale opportunities” lie in non-traditional sectors, such as “machinery” and “chemicals”.
- Capital flows, long term bond yields and fiscal stance : the Eurozone policy trilemmaPublication . Canale, Rosaria RitaThe paper aims at estimating the existence of a trilemma in the Eurozone, i.e., to assess to what extent the net capital flows, the volatility of bond yields and the fiscal stance are strictly linked to each other constraining countries’ ability to manage the internal policy goals. The existence of constraints on policy alternatives is estimated for 11 Eurozone countries from 2002 till 2012. The sample is then divided into pre- (2002–2008) and post-crisis (2009–2012) periods. A further division between the PIIGS and the non-PIIGS is then applied. The results show the validity of the trilemma for the whole Euro area and for the whole period but with some distinction between the pre- and post-crisis periods and between the PIIGS and the non-PIIGS countries. The existence of the trilemma underlines the presence of national constraints and suggests, for the future of the Eurozone, to push towards centralized fiscal policy instruments.
- Socially optimal contribution rate and cap in a proportional (DC) pension systemPublication . Simonovits, AndrásIn our model, the government operates a mandatory proportional (DC) pension system to substitute for the low life-cycle savings of the lower-paid myopic workers, while maintaining the incentives of the higher-paid far-sighted ones in contributing to the system. The introduction of an appropriate cap on pension contribution (or its base)—excluding the earnings above the cap from the contribution base—raises the optimal contribution rate, helping more the lower-paid myopic workers and reserving enough room for the saving of higher-paid far-sighted ones. The social welfare is almost independent of the cap in a relatively wide interval but the maximal welfare is higher than the capless welfare by 0.3–4.5 %.
- The impact of inflation risk on forward trading and productionPublication . Broll, Udo; Kit Pong, WongThis paper examines the behavior of a competitive firm that faces joint price and inflation risk. Given that the price risk is negatively correlated with the inflation risk in the sense of expectation dependence, we show that the firm optimally opts for an over-hedge (under-hedge) if the firm’s coefficient of relative risk aversion is everywhere no greater (no smaller) than unity. We show further that banning the firm from forward trading may induce the firm to produce more or less, depending on whether the price risk premium is positive or negative, respectively. While the price risk premium is unambiguously negative in the absence of the inflation risk, it is not the case when the inflation risk prevails. In contrast to the conventional wisdom, forward hedging needs not always promote production should firms take inflation seriously.
- Threshold effect of foreign direct investment on environmental degradationPublication . Shu-Chen, ChangThe aim of this paper is to investigate the threshold effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on environmental degradation. In empirical analysis, FDI and environmental degradation are jointly determined under the given threshold variable and other exogenous variables. Using carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per capita as a proxy for environmental degradation, the results show that increasing FDI worsens CO2 emissions after a threshold level of corruption has been reached. Our results demonstrate that increasing FDI will increase CO2 emissions when the degree of corruptibility is relatively high. The study suggests that further FDI and improved environmental quality are competing rather than compatible objectives in high-corruption countries and are compatible rather than competing objectives in low-corruption countries. Higher trade liberalization in low-corruption countries could contribute to negative environmental consequences because of the increased output or economic activity which results from increased trade. The robustness estimation confirms the evidence that pollution and economic development increase together up to a certain income level, after which the trend reverses.