Portuguese Economic Journal, 2023, Volume 22, nº 1
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- Probabilistic assessment of external sustainability in PortugalPublication . Das, MitaliPortugal is one of the most externally indebted economies in the eurozone. The deeply negative net international investment position (NIIP) suggests that large current account surpluses will be needed in the future to restore external sustainability. Despite significant interest in the scope for external adjustment within a monetary union, little is known about the magnitude or likelihood of the relative price change required to facilitate this adjustment. Drawing on a new probabilistic framework of external sustainability, this paper estimates the likelihood that a real effective depreciation is needed to lower Portugal’s net external liabilities to more prudent levels. Contrary to conventional thinking, we find that the NIIP is sustainable without real depreciation with fairly high probability, estimated between 32 and 43 percent. We highlight the predominance of financial account shocks over current account shocks in this assessment. To provide context to the assessment, we also apply the framework to Ireland. Despite a weaker NIIP than in Portugal, the probability that the external position is sustainable in Ireland is higher, estimated between 54 and 60 percent, predominantly reflecting forecasts of large and sustained trade surpluses.
- Optimal population policy with health care and lethal pollutionPublication . Lehmijoki, Ulla; Palokangas, TapioOptimal population policy is examined in the following setup. Families invest in capital, spend on health care and determine their number of children. Firms produce output from labor, capital and pollutants. Pollution increases, but private and public health care decrease mortality dynamically, with lags. Our main findings are the following. A marginal increase in public health care improves welfare as long as it diminishes the mortality rate more than that in private health care. The government can decentralize the social optimum by a parental tax on newborns and a Pigouvian tax on pollutants. Private health care should not be taxed.
- Investors’ perspective on portfolio insurance : expected utility vs prospect theoriesPublication . Gaspar, Raquel M.; Silva, Paulo M.This study supports the use of behavioural finance to explain the popularity of portfolio insurance. Portfolio insurance strategies are important financial solutions sold to institutional and individual investors that protect against downside risk while maintaining some upside valuation potential. The way some of these strategies are engineered has been criticised and portfolio insurance itself blamed for increasing market volatility in depressed markets. Despite this, investors keep on buying portfolio insurance that keeps its solid market share. This study contributes to understand the phenomenon. We compare individual investors’ decision using two distinct frameworks: expected utility theory and behavioural theories. Based upon Monte Carlo simulation techniques we compare portfolio insurance strategies against uninsured basic benchmark strategies, for a wide variety of market scenarios. We conclude that cumulative prospect theory may be a viable framework to explain the popularity of portfolio insurance. However, among portfolio insurance strategies, naïve strategies seem to be preferable to most commonly traded strategies.
- Time varying dynamics of globalization effect in IndiaPublication . Gupta, Shikha; Kumar, NandThe link between globalization and economic growth is getting complex as the propagators of globalization are opting protectionism. The paper attempts to identify the time-varying dimension of globalization in India from Q2 1996 to Q3 2019. The aim is to capture the portion of growth explained by domestic and foreign factors suggesting the pace of globalization. The factor-induced domestic and foreign loadings are used in Time-Varying Parameter Regression and Time-Varying Parameter Autoregressive approach to indicate the evidence for slowbalization in India. The models combined with stochastic volatility, aid in capturing the structural changes in the economy in a robust manner.
- Negative network effects and asymmetric pure price equilibriaPublication . Soeiro, Renato; Pinto, Alberto A.We show that in finite settings with identical firms and consumers, asymmetric pure price equilibria with positive profits exist. We consider a price competition duopoly for a homogeneous product. Demand stems from a second-stage consumption game at posted prices, with consumers’ behavior impacted by negative network effects. We characterize equilibrium prices and demand. In all subgame-perfect pure price equilibria, both firms have positive profits, and in some, firms charge different prices.
- Tourism‑led growth asymmetries in Greece : evidence from quantile regression analysisPublication . Lolos, Sarantis; Palaios, Panagiotis; Papapetrou, EvangeliaThe paper provides fresh empirical evidence on the tourism-growth relationship for Greece over the period 1977Q1-2020Q2. We find that the long-run relationship between tourism and output is positive and is characterized by a substantially faster adjustment of output after a negative shock than after a positive one. Using asymmetric error-correction model analysis the results show that the short-term adjustment path occurs through the level of output for negative deviations from the longrun equilibrium, thus supporting the tourism-led growth hypothesis. Linear quantile regression (QR) analysis indicates that the impact of tourism remains positive across the output distribution, but the effect is more pronounced at the lower quantiles of output while at the higher quantiles of output it becomes weaker and statistically insignificant. Furthermore, applying asymmetric QR analysis there is evidence that tourism growth exhibits an asymmetric impact on output growth. Our results have important policy implications, since the tourism-led growth hypothesis is a useful policy recommendation, but it should not be considered a panacea.