Browsing by Issue Date, starting with "2020-05"
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- On the performance of US fiscal forecasts : government vs. private informationPublication . Zidong, An; Jalles, João TovarThis paper contributes to shed light on the quality and performance of US fiscal forecasts. The first part inspects the causes of official (CBO) fiscal forecasts revisions between 1984 and 2016 that are due to technical, economic or policy reasons. Both individual and cumulative means of forecast errors are relatively close to zero, particularly in the case of expenditures. CBO averages indicate net average downward revenue and expenditure revisions and net average upward deficit revisions. Focusing on the causes of the technical component, we uncover that its revisions are quite unpredictable which casts doubts on inferences about fiscal policy sustainability that rely on point estimates. Comparing official with private-sector (Consensus) forecasts, despite the informational advantages CBO might have, one cannot unequivocally say that one or the other is more accurate. Evidence also seems to suggest that CBO forecasts are consistently heavily biased towards optimism while this is less the case for Consensus forecasts. Not only is the extent of information rigidity is more prevalent in CBO forecasts, but evidence also seems to indicate that Consensus forecasts dominate CBO’s in terms of information content.
- Plano de marketing Arrow Business and ArchitecturePublication . Jin Jin, Zhang; Baptista, Maria Cristina PintoEste trabalho de projeto tem como objetivo a elaboração de um plano de marketing para a empresa ARROW BUSINESS AND ARCHITECTURE, a primeira empresa cujo fundador é o primeiro arquiteto da origem chinesa. A Arrow, fundada em 2017, atua no setor da arquitetura e construção em Portugal e oferece serviços de arquitetura, construção e acompanhamento de obras. A metodologia utilizada é de caráter descritivo com o objetivo de expor o mercado onde a empresa Arrow se insere. A estratégia de investigação selecionada foi o inquérito com base em questionários. Para além disso foram efetuadas entrevistas com colaboradores da Arrow e clientes. Com o objetivo de aferir a qualidade do serviço de arquitetura, construção e acompanhamento de obras na perspetiva da comunidade chinesa em Portugal, foi realizado o questionário online, adaptando o instrumento SERVPERF. Para recolha de dados primários sobre a empresa, foram efetuadas entrevistas semiestruturadas. Desta forma, o tipo de estudo adotado foi o método misto. Ao longo deste estudo será possível identificar os pontos fortes e fracos da empresa e, consequentemente, as possíveis áreas a melhorar. O que torna possível o alcance dos objetivos: melhorar o serviço oferecido; melhorar a área de comunicação; obter maiores níveis de satisfação de clientes; aumento do negócio.
- Long-run relationship between exports and imports: current account sustainability tests for the EUPublication . Afonso, António; Huart, Florence; Jalles, João Tovar; Stanek, PiotrWe assess the sustainability of external imbalances for EU countries using panel stationarity tests of Current Account (CA) balance-to-GDP ratios and panel cointegration of exports and imports of goods and services, for the period 1970Q1– 2015Q4. We find that: i) the country panel is non-stationary; ii) cross-sectional dependence plays an important role; iii) there is non-stationarity of the CA, imports, and exports with cross-sectional panel dependence and multiple structural breaks; iv) however, there is a stable long-run relationship between exports and imports in the panel. Hence, trade imbalances can be less unsustainable but this is not sufficient to make current account imbalances sustainable.
- The Size of GovernmentPublication . Afonso, António; Schuknecht, Ludger; Tanzi, VitoWe discuss and provide an overview of the size and role of the government, notably in terms of what the government “should” do, how the government could spend and intervene in the economy, how much governments spend and what they spend their money on. This is done from a historical perspective and also in a stylized way via assessing total expenditure, the composition of public expenditure for advanced, emerging and developing countries.
- Measuring inequality of opportunity across EU-SILC countries : national and urban-rural perspectivesPublication . Mogila, Zbigniew; Melo, Patricia C.; Gaspar, José M.Inequality in individuals’ outcomes resulting from unequal access to opportunities due to differences in individual circumstances, such as family background and/or race, are generally considered to be unfair and ethically unacceptable. Since wealthier individuals and their families tend to live in more affluent areas and mingle with similar more affluent peers, the territorial distribution of inequality of opportunity may partially be viewed as a measure of the extent of spatial (in)justice. One of the ways governments can use to mitigate inequality of opportunity is to improve access to socially valued resources, e.g. education, health. If the spatial distribution of these resources is not equitable, or prevents equitable access to them, persistent or even growing differences in inequality of opportunity may arise. Improving the spatial distribution of socially valued resources can help individuals enhance their socioeconomic prospects, while also increasing the full utilization of territorial capital and, consequently, contribute to greater socioeconomic cohesion. This paper measures the extent of inequality of opportunity at the national level and by degree of urbanization for the countries covered in the survey European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC). Emphasis on the degree of urbanization allows exploring whether large(r) cities can act as social elevators compared to smaller urban and rural areas. Using the EUSILC data, we implement regression models to measure the percentage of the variation in individual’s labour income that is due to family background, namely, the education, occupation and activity status of parents, and household financial situation. Our results indicate substantial variation in inequality of opportunity ranging from 4% (Iceland) to 25% (Luxemburg). In addition, the distinction between more liberal economies and the rest of the countries is seen with the former more income unequal, however, with the smaller impact of family-related factors on individual’s income. Moreover, the findings suggest that cities, especially larger ones, do not seem to work as social elevators and may in fact benefit individuals with a better family background.
- Indicators of Economic Crises : A Data-Driven Clustering ApproachPublication . Göbel, Maximilian; Araújo, TanyaThe determination of reliable early-warning indicators of economic crises is a hot topic in economic sciences. Pinning down recurring patterns or combinations of macroeconomic indicators is indispensable for adequate policy adjustments to prevent a looming crisis. We investigate the ability of several macroeconomic variables telling crisis countries apart from non-crisis economies. We introduce a selfcalibrated clustering-algorithm, which accounts for both similarity and dissimilarity in macroeconomic fundamentals across countries. Furthermore, imposing a desired community structure, we allow the data to decide by itself, which combination of indicators would have most accurately foreseen the exogeneously defined network topology. We quantitatively evaluate the degree of matching between the data-generated clustering and the desired community-structure.
- Harnessing sediments of coastal aquaculture ponds through technosols construction for halophyte cultivation using saline water irrigationPublication . Cortinhas, Ana; Caperta, Ana D.; Teixeira, Generosa; Carvalho, Luísa; Abreu, Maria ManuelaThe Mediterranean aquaculture has been developed mostly in brackish environment in inactive coastal salt production areas. This study aims to utilise Technosols made with aquaculture sediments for Limonium algarvense Erben cultivation. This species that has nutraceutical potential thrives in halophilic environments in the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula and in Morocco. A microcosm assay was set up with plants grown in bottom sediments (C+), commercial substrate (C-), and Technosols with amendments mixture application at 180 g/kg (Tec180) or at 360 g/kg (Tec360). These plants were irrigated with saline (assay 1) and/or with deionised water (assay 2). The bottom pond sediments, coffee wastes and the estuarine water were evaluated for diverse physicochemical parameters. Plant growth was characterised through a combined methodology using morphometric, SEM and physiological analysis. The Technosols were constructed with bottom sediments and a mixture of organic wastes used as amendments. Results revealed that the bottom sediments had low pH 3.2, Corg and extractable P and K contents, and high electroconductivity (EC) and N-NH4 concentration. The estuarine water had a neutral pH, high EC and high Cl-, HCO3-, Na+, Mg2+ and Ca2+ but low N-NO3- content. The Technosols showed a significant increase of pH, Corg, K and P and a decrease in N-NH4 and EC in comparison with sediments. Principal component analysis separated the different experiments in three groups: C-, A1 and A2 assays. The C- was highly correlated with Corg, P, K, N-NO3 parameters and total ascorbate. The A1 assay showed a strong association with Na, Ca and EC parameters, whereas the A2 assay presented a strongly correlation with plant growth. Plants from Technosols had greater development when irrigated with deionised water than under salty irrigation as opposed to plants cultivated in unamend sediments. In conclusion, these results support that highly saline sediments could be valorised through Technosols construction to cultivate plants with saline water, with potential application in the agro-food and pharmaceutical industry.
- Improvement of seasonal runoff and soil loss predictions by the MMF (Morgan-Morgan-Finney) model after wildfire and soil treatment in Mediterranean forest ecosystemsPublication . Zema, Demetrio Antonio; Nunes, João Pedro; Lucas-Borja, Manuel EstebanThe negative hydrological effects of wildfire are very difficult to predict in Mediterranean forest ecosystems, due the intrinsic climate and soil characteristics of these areas. Among the hydrological models simulating surface runoff and soil erosion in these environmental contexts, the semi-empirical Morgan-Morgan-Finney (MMF) model can ensure the representation of the main physical processes, while offering ease of use and limiting the number of input parameters. However, literature reports very few modelling studies using MMF in burned areas of the Mediterranean environment with or without post-fire rehabilitation measures. To fill this gap, the capacity of the MMF model to predict the seasonal surface runoff and soil loss in a Mediterranean forest was verified and improved for unburned plots and areas affected by a wildfire, with and without post-fire straw mulch treatment. The application of MMF with default input parameters (set up according to the original guidelines of the model’s developers) led to poor performance. Conversely, after introducing some changes in input data for both the hydrological and erosive components (seasonal values of evapotranspiration, reduction of the soil hydrological depth, including soil water repellency effects in burned soils, and modelling erosive precipitation only), MMF was able to predict seasonal runoff volumes and soil loss with good reliability in all the experimented conditions. This modelling experiment has shown the capacity of the MMF model to simulate the seasonal hydrological and erosion response of the experimental unburned and burned soils of Mediterranean semi-arid forests. Although more research is needed to validate the model's prediction capacity in these conditions, the use of MMF as a management tool may be suggested to predict the hydrogeological risk in these delicate ecosystems threatened by wildfire, as well as to evaluate the potential efficiency of soil treatments after fire.
- The rose chafers (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae: Cetoniinae) of Angola: a descriptive checklist with new records and synonymic notesPublication . Serrano, Artur; Capela, Rúben A.; Nunes, Telmo; Santos, Carmen Van-Dúnem NetoAn annotated checklist of the species and subspecies of rose chafers (Scarabaeidae: Cetoniinae) hitherto known from Angola is given. This list includes species records from recent entomological trips in that country (2014, 2015 and 2017) and from Portuguese museums and private collections. A total of 177 species and 31 subspecies are recorded for Angola, including 32 endemic species/subspecies (15.4%). Some species are represented by only the holotype specimen (some without locality) or the type series. Others were recorded based on a single specimen. Records for four genera, one subgenus, twenty nine species and four subspecies previously unknown from Angola are given. A new synonymy is established: Ruteroides Gomes Alves, 1973 is proposed as a junior synonym of Pseudinca Kraatz, 1880. Consequently, Ruteroides fradei Gomes Alves, 1973 is transferred to Pseudinca. A brief historical review, as well as some considerations on the distribution and conservation status of these beetles in Angola is also presented.
- Financial Crises and Climate ChangePublication . Jalles, João TovarWe empirically assess by means of the local projection method, the impact of financial crises on climate change vulnerability and resilience. Using a new dataset covering 178 countries over the period 1995–2017, we observe that resilience to climate change shocks has been increasing and that advanced economies are the least vulnerable. Our econometric results suggest that financial crises (particularly systematic banking ones) tend to lead to a short-run deterioration in a country´s resilience to climate change. This effect is more pronounced in developing economies. In downturns, if an economy is hit by a financial crisis, climate change vulnerability increases. Results are robust to several sensitivity checks.