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Long-run relationship between exports and imports: current account sustainability tests for the EU
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Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
We assess the sustainability of external imbalances for EU countries using panel stationarity tests of Current Account (CA) balance-to-GDP ratios and panel cointegration of exports and imports of goods and services, for the period 1970Q1–
2015Q4. We find that: i) the country panel is non-stationary; ii) cross-sectional dependence plays an important role; iii) there is non-stationarity of the CA, imports, and exports with cross-sectional panel dependence and multiple structural breaks; iv) however, there is a stable long-run relationship between exports and imports in the panel. Hence, trade imbalances can be less unsustainable but this is not sufficient to make current account imbalances sustainable.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Current account Exports Imports Unit roots Cointegration
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Afonso, António ... [et al.] (2020). "Long-run relationship between exports and imports: current account sustainability tests for the EU". Portuguese Economic Journal, 19(2):155-170
Editora
Springer