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Abstract(s)
As seguradoras têm um papel fundamental para o bom funcionamento da economia e da sociedade
através da oferta de diversos produtos que conferem proteção contra os vários riscos. As seguradoras do
ramo vida focam-se em conferir proteção contra o risco de morte, invalidez ou sobrevivência em idade
em que exista uma menor capacidade de ganho. Para que isto seja possível é premente prever e controlar
a rentabilidade dos produtos tendo em conta a cada vez maior volatilidade dos diversos fatores que
afetam essa rentabilidade.
Neste contexto surge a importância da técnica de profit testing que permite a estimação de inflows e
outflows referentes a um determinado período, permitindo o cálculo da rentabilidade de uma apólice ou
de um conjunto de apólices de determinado tipo de seguro. Após o estudo de um modelo de profit testing
é importante analisar o impacto da variação dos pressupostos nos resultados, conferindo proteção à
seguradora quanto a eventos imprevisíveis e incertos que possam ocorrer, processo ao qual se dá o nome
de análise de sensibilidades.
O presente projeto pretende focar-se na avaliação da rentabilidade de um Seguro de Vida Temporário
Anual Renovável utilizando a técnica de profit testing para simular 3 diferentes cenários. Para isso foi
desenvolvido um simulador em Microsoft Excel que projeta os fluxos de caixa de entradas e saídas
permitindo o cálculo de indicadores de rentabilidade como o NPV (valor presente líquido), margem de
lucro e TIR (taxa interna de rentabilidade). Seguidamente, procede-se a uma análise de sensibilidades
de modo a analisar em diversos pressupostos quais os impactos da sua variação na rentabilidade do
produto.
Insurance companies play a fundamental role in the smooth running of the economy and society by offering various products that protect against various risks. Life insurance companies focus on protecting against the risk of death, disability or survival at an age when there is less earning capacity. For this to be possible, it is essential for insurers to predict and control the profitability of their products, considering the increasing volatility of the various factors that affect this profitability. In this context, profit testing is an important technique that allows for the estimation of inflows and outflows for a given period, allowing for the calculation of the profitability of a policy or a set of policies of a given type of insurance. After studying a profit testing model, it is important to analyse the impact of varying assumptions on the results, protecting the insurance company against unpredictable and uncertain events that may occur, a process known as sensitivity analysis. This project aims to assess the profitability of a Renewable Annual Temporary Life Insurance product using the profit testing technique to simulate 3 different scenarios. To this end, a Microsoft Excel simulator was developed which projects the incoming and outgoing cash flows, allowing profitability indicators such as NPV (net present value), profit margin and IRR (internal rate of return) to be calculated. This is followed by an analysis of sensitivities to analyse the impact of different assumptions on the product's profitability.
Insurance companies play a fundamental role in the smooth running of the economy and society by offering various products that protect against various risks. Life insurance companies focus on protecting against the risk of death, disability or survival at an age when there is less earning capacity. For this to be possible, it is essential for insurers to predict and control the profitability of their products, considering the increasing volatility of the various factors that affect this profitability. In this context, profit testing is an important technique that allows for the estimation of inflows and outflows for a given period, allowing for the calculation of the profitability of a policy or a set of policies of a given type of insurance. After studying a profit testing model, it is important to analyse the impact of varying assumptions on the results, protecting the insurance company against unpredictable and uncertain events that may occur, a process known as sensitivity analysis. This project aims to assess the profitability of a Renewable Annual Temporary Life Insurance product using the profit testing technique to simulate 3 different scenarios. To this end, a Microsoft Excel simulator was developed which projects the incoming and outgoing cash flows, allowing profitability indicators such as NPV (net present value), profit margin and IRR (internal rate of return) to be calculated. This is followed by an analysis of sensitivities to analyse the impact of different assumptions on the product's profitability.
Description
Tese de Mestrado, Matemática Aplicada à Economia e Gestão, 2025, Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências
Keywords
Seguro de Vida Profit Testing Análise de Sensibilidades Rentabilidade Teses de mestrado - 2025