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Abstract(s)
Esta tese explora a intrincada dinâmica do risco de crédito na atividade agrícola. A
investigação integra conhecimentos de vários ângulos, abrangendo factores como o ciclo
vegetativo, actividades agrícolas específicas como a viticultura e olivicultura, a dimensão
económica e considerações relacionadas com as alterações climáticas. Utilizando um
conjunto abrangente de dados de empresas agrícolas, o estudo examina os preditores de
falência, estima modelos de predição e relata o estado da arte, através de quatro artigos
originais.
Abordando as crescentes ameaças das alterações climáticas à produtividade agrícola,
o primeiro artigo realiza uma revisão sistemática da literatura, identificando 39 artigos
da Scopus e da Web of Science. Desta seleção, emergem três dimensões principais –
(i) empréstimos agrícolas e risco de crédito, (ii) princípios verdes e sustentabilidade, e
(iii) o contexto dos países em desenvolvimento. As conclusões sublinham a necessidade
imperiosa de integrar as considerações climáticas nas políticas agrícolas e de crédito.
São recomendadas estratégias proativas, abrangendo políticas de crédito personalizadas,
melhor acesso ao crédito, capacitação financeira e combate às desigualdades sociais.
O segundo artigo destaca o papel crucial do ciclo vegetativo na diferenciação entre
empresas agrícolas saudáveis e falidas. Os preditores baseados na liquidez revelam-se
eficazes para culturas não perenes, enquanto os preditores de atividade demonstram uma
precisão superior para culturas perenes.
O terceiro artigo estende o seu foco aos setores vitícola e olivícola de países mediterrânicos,
apresentando 12 modelos adaptados para diferentes combinações de países e
culturas. Os resultados sublinham a necessidade de modelos dedicados que tenham em conta as variações sectoriais e regionais para melhorar a precisão das previsões.
O quarto artigo explora as dificuldades financeiras das pequenas empresas agrícolas,
que constituem a maior parte do sector. Aproveitando uma amostra de 9.891 empresas,
são estimados modelos de regressão logística. Notavelmente, a dimensão da empresa
surge como um factor significativo, com as empresas mais pequenas a enfrentar maiores
dificuldades financeiras. O estudo defende a inclusão do tamanho da empresa como
covariável, enfatizando a sua relevância nas diferentes classes de dimensão.
Esta análise multidimensional fornece um quadro abrangente para compreender e
mitigar os desafios enfrentados pelas empresas agrícolas. A síntese destas diversas perspectivas
oferece informações originais e valiosas para os decisores políticos, instituições
financeiras e profissionais, abrindo caminho para uma melhor compreensão dos riscos financeiros,
particularmente os riscos de crédito que estas empresas enfrentam num cenário
de grande incerteza e desafios relacionados com a segurança alimentar e riscos climáticos.
This thesis explores the intricate dynamics of credit risk in agricultural activity. The research integrates knowledge from various angles, covering factors such as the vegetative cycle, specific agricultural activities such as vineyards and olive groves, the economic size and considerations related to climate change. Utilizing a comprehensive dataset from agricultural firms, the study examines bankruptcy predictors, estimates prediction models, and reports on state of the art through four original papers. Addressing the escalating threats of climate change to agricultural productivity, the first paper conducts a systematic literature review, identifying 39 articles from Scopus and Web of Science. From this selection, three major dimensions emerge — (i) agricultural lending and credit risk, (ii) green principles and sustainability, and (iii) the context of developing countries. Findings emphasize the need to integrate climate considerations into agricultural and credit policies. Proactive strategies are recommended, encompassing tailored credit policies, improved access to credit, financial empowerment, and addressing social inequalities. The second paper highlights the crucial role of the vegetative cycle in differentiating between healthy and bankrupt agricultural firms. Liquidity-based predictors prove effective for non-perennial crops, while activity predictors demonstrate superior accuracy for perennial crops. The third paper focuses on the vineyards and olive crops sectors in Mediterranean countries, presenting 12 tailored models for different combinations of countries and crops. Results underscore the necessity for dedicated models that account for sectoral and regional variations to enhance predictive accuracy. The fourth paper explores the financial distress of small-scale agricultural firms, which constitute most of the sector. Logistic regression models are estimated using a sample of 9,891 firms. Noticeably, firm size emerges as a significant factor, with smaller firms experiencing higher financial difficulties. The study advocates for including firm size as a covariate, emphasizing its relevance across different size classes. This multidimensional analysis provides a comprehensive framework for understanding and mitigating the challenges agricultural firms face. The synthesis of these diverse perspectives offers original and valuable information for policymakers, financial institutions and professionals, paving the way for a better understanding of the financial risks, particularly credit risks, that these firms face in a scenario of great uncertainty and challenges related to food security and climatic risks.
This thesis explores the intricate dynamics of credit risk in agricultural activity. The research integrates knowledge from various angles, covering factors such as the vegetative cycle, specific agricultural activities such as vineyards and olive groves, the economic size and considerations related to climate change. Utilizing a comprehensive dataset from agricultural firms, the study examines bankruptcy predictors, estimates prediction models, and reports on state of the art through four original papers. Addressing the escalating threats of climate change to agricultural productivity, the first paper conducts a systematic literature review, identifying 39 articles from Scopus and Web of Science. From this selection, three major dimensions emerge — (i) agricultural lending and credit risk, (ii) green principles and sustainability, and (iii) the context of developing countries. Findings emphasize the need to integrate climate considerations into agricultural and credit policies. Proactive strategies are recommended, encompassing tailored credit policies, improved access to credit, financial empowerment, and addressing social inequalities. The second paper highlights the crucial role of the vegetative cycle in differentiating between healthy and bankrupt agricultural firms. Liquidity-based predictors prove effective for non-perennial crops, while activity predictors demonstrate superior accuracy for perennial crops. The third paper focuses on the vineyards and olive crops sectors in Mediterranean countries, presenting 12 tailored models for different combinations of countries and crops. Results underscore the necessity for dedicated models that account for sectoral and regional variations to enhance predictive accuracy. The fourth paper explores the financial distress of small-scale agricultural firms, which constitute most of the sector. Logistic regression models are estimated using a sample of 9,891 firms. Noticeably, firm size emerges as a significant factor, with smaller firms experiencing higher financial difficulties. The study advocates for including firm size as a covariate, emphasizing its relevance across different size classes. This multidimensional analysis provides a comprehensive framework for understanding and mitigating the challenges agricultural firms face. The synthesis of these diverse perspectives offers original and valuable information for policymakers, financial institutions and professionals, paving the way for a better understanding of the financial risks, particularly credit risks, that these firms face in a scenario of great uncertainty and challenges related to food security and climatic risks.
Description
Doutoramento em Gestão
Keywords
Ciclo Vegetativo Dificuldades Financeiras Predição de Falência Pequena Agricultura Alterações Climáticas Vegetative Cycle Financial Distress Bankruptcy Prediction Small Farming Climate Change
Pedagogical Context
Citation
Céu, Mário Raúl Santiago do (2024). "Essays in agricultural credit risk". Tese de Doutoramento. Universidade de Lisboa. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão
Publisher
Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão