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Are the credit guarantee schemes effective in Portugal? Evidence from PME investe programme
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Resumo(s)
Esta dissertação estuda os principais efeitos do sistema de crédito garantido (PME Investe) adotado em Portugal para as micro, pequenas e médias empresas (PMEs). O presente estudo baseia-se em três bases de dados, com informação individual para todas as empresas e bancos em Portugal, avaliado o impacto do programa sobre o mercado de crédito e a performance económica das empresas participantes. Ao combinar uma abordagem de "matching" com o estimador diferença em diferenças, os resultados demonstram que o programa ajudou as empresas participantes a melhorar o acesso ao mercado de crédito, a aumentar o volume agregado de crédito disponível, a proporção de crédito de longo prazo e a reduzir as despesas com juros. Adicionalmente, existe também evidência estatística de efeitos económicos de segunda ordem, como a criação de emprego e aumento do volume de exportações. O sistema adotado teve também efeitos positivos sobre o sistema bancário em Portugal ao reduzir a sua exposição ao risco, permitindo a melhoria dos seus rácios de capital definidos pelo Acordo de Basileia. No entanto, os resultados demonstram que ainda existe espaço para a melhoria das características intrínsecas ao sistema de crédito garantido em Portugal, em particular para as linhas de crédito direcionadas às empresas exportadoras ou de média dimensão.
This dissertation examines the main effects of the credit guarantee scheme (CGS) for Portuguese micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) initially adopted in 2009. The study relies on three large-scale data sources, with individual information for all Portuguese non-financial corporations and banks, to assess the impact over credit additionality and the ex-post performance of participating firms. By applying a difference-in-difference matching approach, the results have shown that the program helped participants to improve their access to the credit market, increasing the overall amount of loans granted, the proportion of long-term debt and reducing their interest expenses and the probability of default. Moreover, there is also statistical evidence of economic spillovers, such as employment growth and exports volume. The scheme also helped the Portuguese banking system to reduce their risk exposures, improving their capital ratios under the Basel Accord. Nevertheless, the results show that there is room for improvement in the scheme design and features, in particular for credit lines targeting medium-sized or exporters firms.
This dissertation examines the main effects of the credit guarantee scheme (CGS) for Portuguese micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) initially adopted in 2009. The study relies on three large-scale data sources, with individual information for all Portuguese non-financial corporations and banks, to assess the impact over credit additionality and the ex-post performance of participating firms. By applying a difference-in-difference matching approach, the results have shown that the program helped participants to improve their access to the credit market, increasing the overall amount of loans granted, the proportion of long-term debt and reducing their interest expenses and the probability of default. Moreover, there is also statistical evidence of economic spillovers, such as employment growth and exports volume. The scheme also helped the Portuguese banking system to reduce their risk exposures, improving their capital ratios under the Basel Accord. Nevertheless, the results show that there is room for improvement in the scheme design and features, in particular for credit lines targeting medium-sized or exporters firms.
Descrição
Mestrado em Economia
Palavras-chave
Crédito Garantia mútua PMEs Avaliação de políticas públicas Setor bancário PME Investe Credit loan guarantees SMEs policy evaluation banking propensity score average treatment effect
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Pólvora, Pedro Daniel dos Santos (2019). "Are the credit guarantee schemes effective in Portugal? Evidence from PME investe programme". Dissertação de Mestrado, Universidade de Lisboa. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão.
Editora
Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão