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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
A energia eléctrica é um recurso fundamental no funcionamento das sociedades modernas. A procura de electricidade, a identificação das suas principais condicionantes e a análise à forma como se relacionam com aquela têm sido alvo de estudos diversos. Com frequência, esses estudos visam igualmente a previsão da evolução da procura de electricidade. O presente trabalho partilha, em termos gerais, objectivos semelhantes, procurando concretizá-los para o caso português, recorrendo à utilização da metodologia econométrica para a análise de séries temporais e cointegração. Numa perspectiva agregada, a procura de electricidade encontra-se condicionada, nomeadamente, por factores tecnológicos, económicos, demográficos e climatéricos. Além disso, e porque a procura total de electricidade pode ser dividida por sectores relativamente homogéneos quanto à sua natureza, também aqui se exploram, à semelhança de outros estudos, análises da procura no âmbito sectorial, na esperança de obter um maior grau de compreensão do fenómeno. Assim, desenvolveram-se no presente estudo modelos econométricos, tendo por base funções de procura do tipo Cobb-Douglas, que pretendem explicar a evolução da procura de electricidade em Portugal Continental quer na sua totalidade, quer do ponto de vista sectorial, nomeadamente nos sectores Doméstico, Industrial e de Serviços. A análise incidiu sobre os dados anuais compreendidos entre 1957 e 2002. Foi encontrada evidência de cointegração em três casos: (i) entre o consumo total de electricidade no Continente e o PIB; (ii) entre o consumo no sector Doméstico e o Rendimento Disponível Bruto das Famílias; (iii) entre a procura industrial e o VAB da Indústria. Em termos de relações de equilíbrio de longo-prazo, as restantes variáveis analisadas revelaram-se incapazes de acrescentar poder explicativo adicional quer a nível sectorial, quer a nível global. Realizou-se uma análise comparativa da qualidade das previsões dos modelos seleccionados.
Electric power is an essential asset in modern societies. Electricity demand, the identification of its causal factors and the way they interact with it has been explored in many studies. Frequently, they concern the prediction of electricity demand evolution. This study shares similar goals and tries to achieve them by applying time series econometric methodology and cointegration. In an aggregate perspective, electricity demand is conditioned by technological, economical, demographic and climacteric factors, among others. Besides, regarding that global electricity demand can be divided in relatively homogenous sectors, we also explore, like many other studies, a sectoral approach hoping to achieve a higher degree of comprehension of demand. This paper develops econometric models, based on Cobb-Douglas demand functions, in order to explain electricity demand in mainland Portugal as a whole and also focusing in the Residential, Industrial and Commercial sectors. The time-series variables taken into consideration have annual periodicity and were observed between 1957 and 2002. Evidence was found supporting cointegration at three levels: (i) between total electricity demand and Portuguese GDP; (ii) between residential electricity demand and gross disposable income of families; (iii) between industrial electricity demand and industrial value added. In terms of long-term equilibrium, the remaining variables analyzed were unable to increase explanatory capacity either in the sectoral or global approach. A comparative analysis of the quality of the forecasting made through the selected models has been carried out.
Electric power is an essential asset in modern societies. Electricity demand, the identification of its causal factors and the way they interact with it has been explored in many studies. Frequently, they concern the prediction of electricity demand evolution. This study shares similar goals and tries to achieve them by applying time series econometric methodology and cointegration. In an aggregate perspective, electricity demand is conditioned by technological, economical, demographic and climacteric factors, among others. Besides, regarding that global electricity demand can be divided in relatively homogenous sectors, we also explore, like many other studies, a sectoral approach hoping to achieve a higher degree of comprehension of demand. This paper develops econometric models, based on Cobb-Douglas demand functions, in order to explain electricity demand in mainland Portugal as a whole and also focusing in the Residential, Industrial and Commercial sectors. The time-series variables taken into consideration have annual periodicity and were observed between 1957 and 2002. Evidence was found supporting cointegration at three levels: (i) between total electricity demand and Portuguese GDP; (ii) between residential electricity demand and gross disposable income of families; (iii) between industrial electricity demand and industrial value added. In terms of long-term equilibrium, the remaining variables analyzed were unable to increase explanatory capacity either in the sectoral or global approach. A comparative analysis of the quality of the forecasting made through the selected models has been carried out.
Description
Mestrado em Econometria Aplicada e Previsão
Keywords
procura de electricidade raízes unitárias cointegração VAR VECM elasticidade electricity demand unit roots cointegration VAR VECM elasticity
Pedagogical Context
Citation
Carmona, Nuno Manuel Rosa Paias Silva de Oliveira. 2006. "Modelação econométrica da procura de electricidade em Portugal continental: uma aplicação empírica". Dissertação de Mestrado. Universidade Técnica de Lisboa. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão.
Publisher
Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão