Publication
On the performance of US fiscal forecasts : government vs. private information
| dc.contributor.author | Zidong, An | |
| dc.contributor.author | Jalles, João Tovar | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2020-05-28T14:24:52Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2020-05-28T14:24:52Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2020-05 | |
| dc.description.abstract | This paper contributes to shed light on the quality and performance of US fiscal forecasts. The first part inspects the causes of official (CBO) fiscal forecasts revisions between 1984 and 2016 that are due to technical, economic or policy reasons. Both individual and cumulative means of forecast errors are relatively close to zero, particularly in the case of expenditures. CBO averages indicate net average downward revenue and expenditure revisions and net average upward deficit revisions. Focusing on the causes of the technical component, we uncover that its revisions are quite unpredictable which casts doubts on inferences about fiscal policy sustainability that rely on point estimates. Comparing official with private-sector (Consensus) forecasts, despite the informational advantages CBO might have, one cannot unequivocally say that one or the other is more accurate. Evidence also seems to suggest that CBO forecasts are consistently heavily biased towards optimism while this is less the case for Consensus forecasts. Not only is the extent of information rigidity is more prevalent in CBO forecasts, but evidence also seems to indicate that Consensus forecasts dominate CBO’s in terms of information content. | pt_PT |
| dc.description.version | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion | pt_PT |
| dc.identifier.citation | Zidong, An e João Tovar Jalles (2020). "On the performance of US fiscal forecasts : government vs. private information". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – REM Working paper nº 0130 – 2020 | pt_PT |
| dc.identifier.issn | 2184-108X | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/20113 | |
| dc.language.iso | eng | pt_PT |
| dc.peerreviewed | yes | pt_PT |
| dc.publisher | ISEG - REM - Research in Economics and Mathematics | pt_PT |
| dc.relation | Research Unit on Complexity and Economics | |
| dc.relation | Research in Social Sciences and Management | |
| dc.relation.ispartofseries | REM Working paper;nº 0130 – 2020 | |
| dc.subject | forecasting performance | pt_PT |
| dc.subject | encompassing tests | pt_PT |
| dc.subject | CBO | pt_PT |
| dc.subject | Consensus | pt_PT |
| dc.title | On the performance of US fiscal forecasts : government vs. private information | pt_PT |
| dc.type | working paper | |
| dspace.entity.type | Publication | |
| oaire.awardTitle | Research Unit on Complexity and Economics | |
| oaire.awardTitle | Research in Social Sciences and Management | |
| oaire.awardURI | info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UID%2FECO%2F00436%2F2019/PT | |
| oaire.awardURI | info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UID%2FSOC%2F04521%2F2019/PT | |
| oaire.fundingStream | 6817 - DCRRNI ID | |
| oaire.fundingStream | 6817 - DCRRNI ID | |
| project.funder.identifier | http://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871 | |
| project.funder.identifier | http://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871 | |
| project.funder.name | Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia | |
| project.funder.name | Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia | |
| rcaap.rights | openAccess | pt_PT |
| rcaap.type | workingPaper | pt_PT |
| relation.isProjectOfPublication | 114e3eaf-ddc7-4e6f-aee9-efb1c6aa7b85 | |
| relation.isProjectOfPublication | 722dfd85-7af8-4b6d-bcf4-1b4f54d45174 | |
| relation.isProjectOfPublication.latestForDiscovery | 722dfd85-7af8-4b6d-bcf4-1b4f54d45174 |