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Effects of the Banking Union in the risk perception of the portuguese economy
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Esta Dissertação tem como objetivo compreender quais podem ser os efeitos esperados da criação de uma União Bancária na perceção de risco da economia portuguesa, ou seja, de que forma a decisão de completar a integração financeira da UEM através do estabelecimento de uma estrutura institucional que assegura uma supervisão, resolução e um esquema de segurança de depósitos centralizados, pode prevenir a falta de confiança dos mercados financeiros de aumentar a perceção de risco do país. Este estudo justifica-se pelo facto de a crise das dívidas soberanas ter revelado a necessidade de se completar a integração financeira da Europa, dado que uma UEM incompleta trouxe ao de cima as consequências negativas da interdependência entre risco soberano e bancário na zona euro. No caso de Portugal, considera-se que uma dívida acumulada desde 2001 e o resgate dos bancos BPN e BPP, juntamente com um efeito de contágio da Grécia e Irlanda, minaram o sentimento dos mercados financeiros relativamente à sua capacidade de financiamento, aumentando a perceção de risco de que poderia entrar em incumprimento. Através da avaliação das mais recentes tendências das obrigações da dívida pública a 10 anos e spreads de CDS a 5 anos, conclui-se que o anúncio da União Bancária no verão de 2012 parece ter tido algum efeito positivo na perceção de risco de Portugal, que esforços para acelerar o processo de estabilidade financeira do país estão a mostrar resultados e que os instrumentos já aprovados no âmbito da União Bancária são um passo na direção certa.
This Dissertation aims at understanding what the expected effects of the creation of a Banking Union in the risk perception of the Portuguese economy may be. In other words, in what ways the decision to complete the financial integration of the Economic and Monetary Union by establishing an institutional structure that assures a centralized banking supervision, resolution and deposit guarantee scheme, may prevent the lack of confidence from financial markets to increase the country's risk perception. This study is justified by the fact that the sovereign debt crisis brought up the need to complete Europe's financial integration, since an incomplete Economic and Monetary Union brought forward the negative consequences of the interdependence between sovereign and banking risk in the euro area. In Portugal's case, it is considered that an accumulated debt since 2001 and the bail-out of banks BPN and BPP, together with a spill-over effect from Greece and Ireland, undermined the financial markets' sentiment towards Portugal's ability to finance itself, increasing the country's risk perception of going into default. Through the assessment of recent trends in 10 year Government bond yields and 5 year CDS spreads, it can be concluded that the announcement of a Banking Union in the summer of 2012 seems to have had some positive effects in the risk perception of the Portuguese economy, continued efforts to accelerate the country's process of financial stability are showing results and the instruments already approved within the Banking Union's framework are a step in the right direction.
This Dissertation aims at understanding what the expected effects of the creation of a Banking Union in the risk perception of the Portuguese economy may be. In other words, in what ways the decision to complete the financial integration of the Economic and Monetary Union by establishing an institutional structure that assures a centralized banking supervision, resolution and deposit guarantee scheme, may prevent the lack of confidence from financial markets to increase the country's risk perception. This study is justified by the fact that the sovereign debt crisis brought up the need to complete Europe's financial integration, since an incomplete Economic and Monetary Union brought forward the negative consequences of the interdependence between sovereign and banking risk in the euro area. In Portugal's case, it is considered that an accumulated debt since 2001 and the bail-out of banks BPN and BPP, together with a spill-over effect from Greece and Ireland, undermined the financial markets' sentiment towards Portugal's ability to finance itself, increasing the country's risk perception of going into default. Through the assessment of recent trends in 10 year Government bond yields and 5 year CDS spreads, it can be concluded that the announcement of a Banking Union in the summer of 2012 seems to have had some positive effects in the risk perception of the Portuguese economy, continued efforts to accelerate the country's process of financial stability are showing results and the instruments already approved within the Banking Union's framework are a step in the right direction.
Descrição
Mestrado em Economia Internacional e Estudos Europeus
Palavras-chave
União Bancária dívida soberana portuguesa perceção de risco obrigações de dívida pública credit default swaps Banking Union Portuguese sovereign debt risk perception Government bond yields
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Teles, Nadine Cristina Bastos (2014). "Effects of the Banking Union in the risk perception of the portuguese economy". Dissertação de Mestrado, Universidade de Lisboa. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão.
Editora
Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão