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Bioclimatological mapping tackling uncertainty propagation: application to mainland Portugal
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Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
We present a bioclimatological diagnosis of mainland Portugal, namely the thermotype and ombrotype maps
following Rivas-Martínez’s worldwide bioclimatic classi$cation system. In order to obtain this diagnosis, we produced maps
of bioclimatological indices using, as base data, geostatistical interpolations of air temperature and precipitation.We performed
uncertainty propagation obtaining uncertainty measures for the produced maps: mean absolute errors and root mean squared
errors. For the non-linear indices, besides the usual approximation using Taylor expansion, we devised error formulae, for
which we showed that the propagated uncertainties are upper bounds on the true uncertainty measures. We compared the
obtained uncertainty measures to those reported on a previously published work, which used a different methodological
framework to obtain the same diagnosis. Although the approach we used here implies a great number of interpolations and
subsequent calculation steps, it permitted the use of a large amount of data relative to precipitation. An F-test showed that
the estimated mean squared errors for the maps of ombrothermic indices were signi$cantly lower than those produced by the
former methodological framework.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
bioclimatology bioclimatological mapping error propagation mean absolute error root mean squared error map algebra Portugal
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Editora
Royal Meteorological Society