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Dançar tango no Monte Olimpo : uma comparação entre crises e planos de ajuste estrutural entre Argentina e Grécia
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Ao olhar para o desenvolvimento das crises em Argentina no começo da década de 2000 e na Grécia a partir de 2008 e para as medidas tomadas na tentativa de resolvê-las, é possível encontrar várias semelhanças: taxas de câmbio fixas que ao princípio levaram a um forte crescimento económico acabaram por ter efeitos negativos sobre o mesmo, numa situação agravada por golpes a nível macroeconómico devidos a acontecimentos externos aos países.
Em âmbos os casos, foram implementadas medidas de austeridade miradas à desvalorização interna, para aumentar a competitividade e recuperar a estabilidade financeira.
No caso de Argentina, contudo, as medidas acabaram por não conseguir resolver a situação e o país acabou por abandonar a taxa de câmbio fixa com o dólar declarando default sobre a dívida soberana, conseguindo apesar duma forte crise recuperar o crescimento económico em pouco tempo.
No que diz respeito a Grécia, apesar das semelhanças com o desenvolvimento da situaçaõ argentina, ainda nada está decidido, e o Governo parece ter por menos duas escolhas: a saída do Euro ou a permanência dentro da Eurozona continuando a seguir as medidas de austeridade propostas por FMI, BCE e Comissão Europeia.
Apesar da saída do Euro poder parecer uma solução interessante, olhando para a experiência argentina, poderia acabar por não resultar na mesma maneira.
Argentina podia ser um exemplo para a Grécia no sentido duma maior firmeza nas negociações com a chamada Troika para a obtenção de medidas de austeridade menos duras e mais orientadas para o crescimento do país.
Similarities between Argentine's economic crisis of 2000-2002 and the measures taken trying to solve it and what has been happening in Greece since 2008 are quite evident. Both countries adopted a fixed exchange rate that, at least in the beginning, made a strong economic development possible, and that in the end has negative effects on the economy iself, in a situation made worse by macroeconomical strokes origined outside of the two countries. In both cases, severe austerity measures were implemented to achieve internal devaluation, that was supposed to boost competitiveness and reach financial stability. In Argentina, however, those measures didn't work and the country had to leave the currency board, declaring default on his sovereign debt and managing, despite of a deep economic crisis, to start growing again after few time. For Greece, nothing has been decided yet, and the Government appears to have at least 2 choices: leave the Euro or stay in the Eurozone, having to accept further austerity measures imposed by the so-called Troika, composed by the IMF,ECB and European Commission. Even if leaving the Euro could seem, thinking about the argentinian experience, an interesting solution, it is not sure that it would end up providing the same benefits, due to the differences in the macroeconomic context and between the economies. Argentina could be an example for Greece to be more determined in its negotiations with the Troika, trying to obtain new packages of not so severe austerity measures, more focused on enhancing the country's economic development.
Similarities between Argentine's economic crisis of 2000-2002 and the measures taken trying to solve it and what has been happening in Greece since 2008 are quite evident. Both countries adopted a fixed exchange rate that, at least in the beginning, made a strong economic development possible, and that in the end has negative effects on the economy iself, in a situation made worse by macroeconomical strokes origined outside of the two countries. In both cases, severe austerity measures were implemented to achieve internal devaluation, that was supposed to boost competitiveness and reach financial stability. In Argentina, however, those measures didn't work and the country had to leave the currency board, declaring default on his sovereign debt and managing, despite of a deep economic crisis, to start growing again after few time. For Greece, nothing has been decided yet, and the Government appears to have at least 2 choices: leave the Euro or stay in the Eurozone, having to accept further austerity measures imposed by the so-called Troika, composed by the IMF,ECB and European Commission. Even if leaving the Euro could seem, thinking about the argentinian experience, an interesting solution, it is not sure that it would end up providing the same benefits, due to the differences in the macroeconomic context and between the economies. Argentina could be an example for Greece to be more determined in its negotiations with the Troika, trying to obtain new packages of not so severe austerity measures, more focused on enhancing the country's economic development.
Descrição
Mestrado em Desenvolvimento e Cooperação Internacional
Palavras-chave
Argentina Grécia Críse Dívida Taxa de Câmbio Planos de Resgate Greece Debt Crisis Exchange Rate Rescue Plan
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Ferrari, Giulia (2012). "Dançar tango no Monte Olimpo : uma comparação entre crises e planos de ajuste estrutural entre Argentina e Grécia". Dissertação de Mestrado, Universidade Técnica de Lisboa. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão.
Editora
Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão