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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
Pension expenditure is a concern for the sustainability of public finances in the European Union. Therefore, assessing pension expenditure determinants is crucial. This study aims to disentangle the impact of demographic and economic variables, such as ageing, productivity, and unemployment, on pension expenditure. Using Portuguese time-series data, from 1975 to 2014, statistical evidence was found of co-integration between unemployed people aged between 15 and 64 years old, apparent productivity of labour, the old-age dependence index and pension expenditure as a share of gross domestic product. The use of a vector error correction model, with impulse-response functions and variance decomposition, showed that ageing has an almost insignificant impact in the long-run, when compared with unemployment and productivity.
Description
Keywords
pension expenditure determinants linear regression analysis
Pedagogical Context
Citation
Garcia, Maria Teresa, André Fernando Rodrigues Rocha da Silva (2019). "Assessing Pension expenditure determinants : the case of Portugal". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – REM Working paper nº 068 - 2019
Publisher
ISEG - REM - Research in Economics and Mathematics