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O lugar da prospetiva na estratégia
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Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
Este trabalho visa explicar o lugar da prospetiva na estratégia, ou seja, demonstrar a
relação entre duas disciplinas das ciências sociais, ambas consideradas pelos seus
estudiosos como uma ciência e uma arte.
Para estudar esta relação propomo-nos desobscurecer o significado de prospetiva, não só
enquadrando-a nos estudos do futuro, como também explorando a sua aplicação, desde
os seus primórdios, dos anos 20 do séc. XX, até aos nossos dias, nas diversas áreas em que
se ocupou. Descreveremos também as diferentes escolas da prospetiva, e identificaremos
as diferenças entre abordagens.
Para provar a complexidade conceptual do objeto de estudo, estudaremos as relações
multidimensionais existentes prospetiva e estratégia, futurologia, previsão, acaso,
incerteza e complexidade. Procuraremos explicar a importância dos cenários no diálogo
estratégico e faremos um pequeno bird's-eye view aos exercícios de prospetiva estratégica
realizados em Portugal, procurando caracterizá-los de acordo com os conhecimentos
adquiridos.
Concluiremos este trabalho procurando demonstrar o lugar axiomático e transversal que
a prospetiva ocupa na estratégia, ocupado não apenas para fornecer ao decisor os
elementos estratégicos essenciais ao planeamento e à modalidade de ação, como também
na operacionalização, no controlo e na retroalimentação estratégica.
Abstract: This work aims to explain the place of prospective in the strategy, ie, demonstrate the relationship between these two social science disciplines, both considered by its scholars as a science and an art. To study this relationship we propose clarify the meaning of prospective, not only framing it on future studies, as well as exploring its application, since its inception, 20s of the XX century to the present day, in its various applications. Describes also the different schools of prospective, and identifies the differences between the approaches. To prove the conceptual complexity of the object of study, we will see the existing multidimensional relationships between strategy and foresight, futurology, forecast, chance, uncertainty and complexity. Seeks to explain the importance of the scenarios in the strategic conversation and make a small bird's-eye view of the strategic foresight exercises carried out in Portugal, seeking to characterize them according to knowledge acquired. We will conclude this work demonstrating that the foresight takes a cross and axiomatic place in the strategy, occupied not only to provide the essential strategic elements to the decision-maker be able to planning the strategic action mode, but also in the operationalization, control and strategic feedback.
Abstract: This work aims to explain the place of prospective in the strategy, ie, demonstrate the relationship between these two social science disciplines, both considered by its scholars as a science and an art. To study this relationship we propose clarify the meaning of prospective, not only framing it on future studies, as well as exploring its application, since its inception, 20s of the XX century to the present day, in its various applications. Describes also the different schools of prospective, and identifies the differences between the approaches. To prove the conceptual complexity of the object of study, we will see the existing multidimensional relationships between strategy and foresight, futurology, forecast, chance, uncertainty and complexity. Seeks to explain the importance of the scenarios in the strategic conversation and make a small bird's-eye view of the strategic foresight exercises carried out in Portugal, seeking to characterize them according to knowledge acquired. We will conclude this work demonstrating that the foresight takes a cross and axiomatic place in the strategy, occupied not only to provide the essential strategic elements to the decision-maker be able to planning the strategic action mode, but also in the operationalization, control and strategic feedback.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Prospetiva Estratégia Estudos do futuro Cenários Futurologia Diálogo Estratégico
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Editora
Instituto Superior de Ciências Sociais e políticas