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Explaining Africa’s public consumption procyclicality : revisiting old evidence
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Resumo(s)
This paper compiles a novel dataset of time-varying measures of government consumption cyclicality for a panel of 46 African economies between 1960 and 2014. Government consumption has, generally, been highly procyclical over time in this group of countries. However, sample averages hide serious heterogeneity across countries with the majority of them showing procyclical behavior despite some positive signs of graduation from the “procyclicality trap” in a few cases. By means of weighted least squares regressions, we find that more developed African economies tend to have a smaller degree of government consumption procyclicality. Countries with higher social fragmentation and those are more reliant on foreign aid inflows tend to have a more procyclical government consumption policy. Better governance promotes counter- cyclical fiscal policy whileincreased democracy dampens it. Finally, some fiscal rules are important in curbing the procyclical behavior of government consumption.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
government consumption time-varying coefficients weighted least squares inequality financial constraints institutions
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Jalles, João Tovar (2019). "Explaining Africa’s public consumption procyclicality : revisiting old evidence". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – REM Working paper nº 0100 - 2019
Editora
ISEG - REM - Research in Economics and Mathematics