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Brexit’s impact on European union immigration to the UK vs non-European union immigration
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Resumo(s)
The Brexit referendum, held in June 2016, has significantly impacted the political,
economic, and social dynamics of the United Kingdom and the European Union, with
immigration concerns at the heart of the campaign. The aim of this dissertation is to access
the specific impact of this event on immigration trends, focusing on EU nationals and
their contributions to the UK labour market.
This study adopts a quantitative approach, using data from the Office for National
Statistics (ONS). It analyses two datasets: long-term migration to the UK, spanning from
2012 to 2023, and payrolled employment in the UK, ranging from 2014 to 2023. A
regression model, employing Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), is utilized to examine the
influence of Brexit on EU migration trends, and sector-specific impacts, particularly
Hospitality, Finance, Health and Social Work, Education, and Professional, Scientific and
Technical activities.
The findings of this research emphasized that Brexit has considerably reduced EU
immigration and, simultaneously increased exponentially non-EU immigration. This has
led to a major shift in the immigration trends and the composition of the British
workforce, with overall immigration levels remaining high. The results indicate that the
new patterns on immigration are not addressing the UK’s labour needs, revealing that the
contributions of EU migrants were underestimated. Furthermore, these findings
contradict the promises made during the Leave campaign to reduce immigration.
This thesis addresses the Sustainable Development Goals number 8 (Decent Work
and Economic Growth), 10 (Reduced Inequalities) and 16 (Peace, Justice, and Strong
Institutions).
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Brexit United Kingdom European Union Immigration Labour Market SDG
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Dias, Marta Raposo Rosa (2025). “Brexit’s impact on European union immigration to the UK vs non-European union immigration”. Dissertação de Mestrado. Universidade de Lisboa. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão
Editora
Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão