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Publicação
Synergy between land use and climate change increases future risk in Amazon forests
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Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years,
yet climate change and land use threaten the forest’s future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which
are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climatedriven
dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels
preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these
remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the
interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario
of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – Representative Concentration
Pathway (RCP) 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more
forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in
RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly,
if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate
change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore
the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation
are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change
Descrição
Palavras-chave
land use climate change fire risk Amazon forests
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1237–1246, 2017
Editora
European Geosciences Union