Publication
An economic policy uncertainty index for Portugal
| dc.contributor.author | Morão, Hugo | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2024-05-08T14:36:18Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2024-05-08T14:36:18Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2024-05 | |
| dc.description.abstract | This paper investigates the effects of policy uncertainty on major macroeconomic variables in Portugal, employing a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) approach. I develop an Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index utilizing data from over twenty news sources, which captures key moments such as elections, budget negotiations, and various crises. In response to a rise in policy uncertainty, firms delay projects, leading to a decline in industrial output and a rise in unemployment. Consumers, in turn, reduce their non-essential spending, resulting in a gradual decline in retail sales. On the financial side, rising policy uncertainty drives down equity prices and widens credit spreads, reflecting the concerns of investors and lenders. | pt_PT |
| dc.description.version | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion | pt_PT |
| dc.identifier.citation | Morão, Hugo (2024). "An economic policy uncertainty index for Portugal". REM Working paper series, nº 0322/2024 | pt_PT |
| dc.identifier.issn | 2184-108X | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/30959 | |
| dc.language.iso | eng | pt_PT |
| dc.peerreviewed | yes | pt_PT |
| dc.publisher | ISEG – REM (Research in Economics and Mathematics) | pt_PT |
| dc.relation | 2021.05903.BD | pt_PT |
| dc.relation.ispartofseries | REM Working paper series;nº 0322/2024 | |
| dc.relation.publisherversion | file:///C:/Users/duarte/Desktop/REM_WP_0322_2024.pdf | pt_PT |
| dc.subject | Economic uncertainty | pt_PT |
| dc.subject | Policy uncertainty | pt_PT |
| dc.subject | Uncertainty shocks | pt_PT |
| dc.subject | Proxy-SVAR | pt_PT |
| dc.subject | Correlation restrictions | pt_PT |
| dc.subject | Textual analysis | pt_PT |
| dc.title | An economic policy uncertainty index for Portugal | pt_PT |
| dc.type | working paper | |
| dspace.entity.type | Publication | |
| rcaap.rights | openAccess | pt_PT |
| rcaap.type | workingPaper | pt_PT |