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Publicação
An economic policy uncertainty index for Portugal
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Autores
Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
This paper investigates the effects of policy uncertainty on major macroeconomic variables in Portugal, employing a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) approach. I
develop an Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index utilizing data from over twenty
news sources, which captures key moments such as elections, budget negotiations,
and various crises. In response to a rise in policy uncertainty, firms delay projects,
leading to a decline in industrial output and a rise in unemployment. Consumers, in
turn, reduce their non-essential spending, resulting in a gradual decline in retail sales.
On the financial side, rising policy uncertainty drives down equity prices and widens
credit spreads, reflecting the concerns of investors and lenders.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Economic uncertainty Policy uncertainty Uncertainty shocks Proxy-SVAR Correlation restrictions Textual analysis
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Morão, Hugo (2024). "An economic policy uncertainty index for Portugal". REM Working paper series, nº 0322/2024
Editora
ISEG – REM (Research in Economics and Mathematics)