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Regime de metas de inflação no mundo e o caso do Brasil
Autores
Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
Este trabalho de mestrado estuda a inflação nas economias emergentes e em desenvolvimento e
nas economias avançadas. Desde os anos 1970, um longo processo de desinflação de quase 50
anos reduziu a taxa de inflação global.
Entre 2021 e 2023, o choque de inflação após a pandemia e a guerra na Ucrânia trouxe
incertezas. As economias registaram taxas de inflação historicamente altas em todo mundo. Os
bancos centrais foram surpreendidos e reagiram com o aumento dos juros e a ret irada de outros
estímulos fiscais. A ideia de que a inflação iria convergir para a meta no longo prazo não se
confirmou.
As economias avançadas foram as primeiras a implementarem o regime de metas de
inflação no início dos anos 1990, e serviram como exemplo para as economias emergentes e em
desenvolvimento. O governo brasileiro também decidiu adotar o sistema de metas de inflação. A
experiência do Brasil, comprova que nem sempre a inflação e a expectativa de inflação estiveram
dentro da meta.
No caso do Brasil, durante o processo inflacionário recente a partir de 2021, o banco central
foi cauteloso e antecipou o ciclo de aperto monetário. Após a queda da inflação, os juros no Brasil
desceram antes das economias avançadas.
Na ótica do banco central do Brasil em relação ao cenário externo, choques consecutivos
refletiram em incertezas para o crescimento global e riscos de inflação alta no mundo. No cenário
interno, o crescimento da economia brasileira e o mercado de trabalho estavam resilientes no final
de 2023. O banco central do brasil estimou as expectativas de inflação convergindo para meta e
uma continuação na queda dos juros. Entretanto, a desinflação no Brasil não se consolidou.
This master's thesis studies inflation in emerging and developing economies alongside advanced economies. Since the 1970s, a long process of disinflation lasting almost 50 years has reduced the global inflation rate. Between 2021 and 2023, the inflation shock following the pandemic and the war in Ukraine brought uncertainties. Economies recorded historically high inflation rates worldwide. Central banks were caught off guard and responded by raising interest rates and withdrawing other fiscal stimulus. The idea that inflation would converge to the target in the long term was not confirmed. Advanced economies were the first to implement an inflation targeting regime in the early 1990s, serving as a model for emerging and developing economies. The Brazilian government also decided to adopt the inflation targeting regime. Brazil's experience demonstrates that inflation and inflation expectations have not always remained within the target. In the case of Brazil, during the recent inflationary process starting in 2021, the central bank was more hawkish and pre-emptively initiated a monetary tightening cycle. After inflation fell, interest rates in Brazil decreased before those in advanced economies. From the perspective of Brazil's central bank regarding the external scenario, consecutive shocks reflected uncertainties for global growth and risks of high inflation worldwide. Domestically, Brazilian gross domestic product and job market remained resilient at the end of 2023. The Brazilian central bank estimated inflation expectations converging to the target and a continued decline in interest rates. However, disinflation in Brazil did not consolidate yet.
This master's thesis studies inflation in emerging and developing economies alongside advanced economies. Since the 1970s, a long process of disinflation lasting almost 50 years has reduced the global inflation rate. Between 2021 and 2023, the inflation shock following the pandemic and the war in Ukraine brought uncertainties. Economies recorded historically high inflation rates worldwide. Central banks were caught off guard and responded by raising interest rates and withdrawing other fiscal stimulus. The idea that inflation would converge to the target in the long term was not confirmed. Advanced economies were the first to implement an inflation targeting regime in the early 1990s, serving as a model for emerging and developing economies. The Brazilian government also decided to adopt the inflation targeting regime. Brazil's experience demonstrates that inflation and inflation expectations have not always remained within the target. In the case of Brazil, during the recent inflationary process starting in 2021, the central bank was more hawkish and pre-emptively initiated a monetary tightening cycle. After inflation fell, interest rates in Brazil decreased before those in advanced economies. From the perspective of Brazil's central bank regarding the external scenario, consecutive shocks reflected uncertainties for global growth and risks of high inflation worldwide. Domestically, Brazilian gross domestic product and job market remained resilient at the end of 2023. The Brazilian central bank estimated inflation expectations converging to the target and a continued decline in interest rates. However, disinflation in Brazil did not consolidate yet.
Descrição
Mestrado Economia Internacional e Estudos Europeus
Palavras-chave
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Neto, Rubem Coelho dos Santos (2024). “Regime de metas de inflação no mundo e o caso do Brasil”. Dissertação de Mestrado. Universidade de Lisboa. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão
Editora
Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão