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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
A necessidade de gerir a dívida dos municípios traduz-se, em Portugal, na existência de um framework legal consubstanciado, nomeadamente, no respetivo regime financeiro. O regime em vigor (desde 2014), estabelece limites à divida total e define mecanismos de prevenção do endividamento. Esta investigação analisou os municípios portugueses que ultrapassaram o limite ao endividamento e, em que medida, aqueles indicadores de alerta precoce permitem identificar a situação de incumprimento em cada um dos períodos estudados (2011 a 2013 e 2014 a 2016). O indicador da taxa execução da receita tem vindo a melhorar significativamente desde 2014, parecendo estar a contribuir para a elaboração de orçamentos menos sobreavaliados. Quanto à eficácia dos indicadores, conclui-se que no período de 2014 a 2016, ambos são estatisticamente significativos em termos de correlação. No entanto, o indicador “dívida total maior ou igual à média da receita corrente” revelou-se mais eficaz na identificação dos municípios em incumprimento.
The need to manage municipal debt is translated, in Portugal, into the existence of a legal framework embodied, namely, in the respective financial regime. The regime in force (since 2014), sets limits to the total debt and defines mechanisms to prevent indebtedness. This research has analyzed the Portuguese municipalities that have exceeded the debt limit and, to what extent those early warning indicators allow the identification of the default situation in each of the studied periods (2011 to 2013 and 2014 to 2016). The revenue execution rate indicator has been improving significantly since 2014, and seems to be contributing to less overestimated budgets. As for the effectiveness of the indicators, it is concluded that in the period 2014 to 2016, both are statistically significant in terms of correlation. However, the indicator "total debt greater than or equal to average current revenue" proved to be more effective in identifying defaulting municipalities.
The need to manage municipal debt is translated, in Portugal, into the existence of a legal framework embodied, namely, in the respective financial regime. The regime in force (since 2014), sets limits to the total debt and defines mechanisms to prevent indebtedness. This research has analyzed the Portuguese municipalities that have exceeded the debt limit and, to what extent those early warning indicators allow the identification of the default situation in each of the studied periods (2011 to 2013 and 2014 to 2016). The revenue execution rate indicator has been improving significantly since 2014, and seems to be contributing to less overestimated budgets. As for the effectiveness of the indicators, it is concluded that in the period 2014 to 2016, both are statistically significant in terms of correlation. However, the indicator "total debt greater than or equal to average current revenue" proved to be more effective in identifying defaulting municipalities.
Description
Keywords
RFALEI; Endividamento; Mecanismos de Alerta Precoce; Eficácia de Execução da Receita; Coeficiente de Correlação
Pedagogical Context
Citation
dos Santos, P. A. R. G., Martinho, C. A., & Pinho, C. P. dos S. (2023). Eficácia dos indicadores de alerta precoce do RFALEI na identificação dos municípios que ultrapassaram o limite ao endividamento. Revista De Gestão E Secretariado, 14(3), 4437–4460. https://doi.org/10.7769/gesec.v14i3.1905