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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
The African citrus psyllid, Trioza erytreae (Del Guercio) (Hemiptera, Triozidae), is native to tropical Africa
and invasive species in North America and Europe. The main host plants are citrus, displaying a preference
for lemon trees. This psyllid was recently detected in the northwest region of the Iberian Peninsula, both
in Spain and Portugal. Here, we used a model combining a reaction-diffusion model to a stochastic long-
distance dispersal model to simulate the invasion dynamics of T. erytreae in Portugal. The psyllid spread
in Portugal was simulated between 2015 and 2021 for different combinations of model parameters: two
fecundity levels; spread with and without stochastic long-distance dispersal; single or two introductions of
T. erytreae; and considering or not the urban and peri-urban citrus trees, besides citrus orchards, estimated
using Google Street view imagery. The incorporation of long-distance human mediated dispersal significantly
improved the F1-score in the model validation using the official reports as the observed data. Concomitantly,
the dispersal rate of T. erytreae in Portugal was on average about 66 km/year, whereas removing long-distance
dispersal events, the observed mean was 7.8 ± 0.3 km/year. The dispersal was mainly towards the south along
the coastline, where human population is concentrated. The inclusion of the estimated citrus trees outside
orchards areas significantly increased the F1-score in the model validation, revealing the importance these
isolated host plants hold as stepping stones for the species current invasion and possibly for other species alike
Description
Keywords
insect vectors invasive isolated trees models non-native species psyllids spread Trioza erytreae
Pedagogical Context
Citation
Nunes P, Robinet C, Branco M, Franco JC (2023) Modelling the invasion dynamics of the African citrus psyllid: The role of human-mediated dispersal and urban and peri-urban citrus trees. In: Jactel H, Orazio C, Robinet C, Douma JC, Santini A, Battisti A, Branco M, Seehausen L, Kenis M (Eds) Conceptual and technical innovations to better manage invasions of alien pests and pathogens in forests. NeoBiota 84: 369–396
Publisher
Pensoft Publishers