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Farming under urban pressure: farmers' land use and land cover change intentions

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dc.contributor.authorGomes, Eduardo
dc.contributor.authorAbrantes, Patrícia
dc.contributor.authorBanos, Arnaud
dc.contributor.authorRocha, Jorge
dc.contributor.authorBuxton, Michael
dc.date.accessioned2020-04-08T17:33:06Z
dc.date.available2020-04-08T17:33:06Z
dc.date.issued2019
dc.description.abstractDecisions about future land use are complex and involve a wide range of factors. The perceptions, intentions, and interests of the stakeholders involved are usually unpredictable. Different stakeholders manage land by choosing different future options and revealing different expectations. Greater proximity to built-up areas confronts farmers with challenges about future land use and land cover change (LUCC). This study aims to identify how external drivers can affect farmers’ future LUCC intentions focusing on conversion of agricultural land to urban development. We explore two scenarios projected for the time horizon of 2025 based on farmers’ LUCC intentions: A0 – current social and economic trend; and B0 – increasing demand for urban development. We selected the Torres Vedras municipality (Portugal) as case study, an area predominantly agricultural but with a progressively urban intensification in the past two decades. We conducted interviews to capture the farmers’ LUCC intentions and modelled an artificial neural network – a multilayered perception to allocate the potential areas for urban development. Parishes with the highest urban pressure were identified using a cluster analysis. These were compared with areas expected to be urbanized (defined in the master plan). Results suggest an increasing farming intensity in the A0 scenario, and an urban growth increase of more than 40% in the B0 scenario, with negative impacts on farming expansion. The outcomes can be applied to spatial planning instruments in order to assist planners to define land transformation priorities and adjust them to spatial trends.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationGomes, E., Abrantes, P., Banos, A., Rocha, J., & Buxton, M. (2019). Farming under urban pressure: farmers' land use and land cover change intentions. Applied geography, 102, 58-70. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2018.12.009pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.apgeog.2018.12.009pt_PT
dc.identifier.eissn1873-7730
dc.identifier.issn0143-6228
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10451/42801
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherElsevierpt_PT
dc.relation.publisherversionhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0143622818305472pt_PT
dc.subjectFarmers’ LUCC intentionspt_PT
dc.subjectUrban growthpt_PT
dc.subjectANN-MPLpt_PT
dc.subjectCluster analysispt_PT
dc.subjectSpatial planningpt_PT
dc.titleFarming under urban pressure: farmers' land use and land cover change intentionspt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.endPage70pt_PT
oaire.citation.startPage58pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleApplied Geographypt_PT
oaire.citation.volume102pt_PT
person.familyNameGomes
person.familyNameABRANTES
person.familyNameRocha
person.givenNameEduardo
person.givenNamePATRICIA
person.givenNameJorge
person.identifier1830826
person.identifier0000000069085031
person.identifier.ciencia-idBD16-38FD-7C3E
person.identifier.ciencia-idC913-032A-9B76
person.identifier.ciencia-idEC15-76DC-9B96
person.identifier.orcid0000-0001-8703-1763
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-5477-8657
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-7228-6330
person.identifier.ridV-6159-2017
person.identifier.ridN-3554-2016
person.identifier.ridF-3185-2017
person.identifier.scopus-author-id32867650100
person.identifier.scopus-author-id57194575198
person.identifier.scopus-author-id56428061000
rcaap.rightsclosedAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
relation.isAuthorOfPublication2eca24c0-6b2e-4672-a5b2-63707857f9ed
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationeb928e18-f361-40d8-a18c-759398a52846
relation.isAuthorOfPublication9c7dabc1-d6c6-4636-9293-6babe2ba64c9
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery2eca24c0-6b2e-4672-a5b2-63707857f9ed

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