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Publicação
Modelação da probabilidade de ocorrência de incêndio em povoamentos florestais de Portugal Continental
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Autores
Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
The fire is the most important agent of land use change in Portugal, being a major
threat to the forestry industry. This context suggests the need for the active management and
their incorporation into the management of fire in forest management. It was modeled the
probability of fire occurrence, incorporating several factors that determine the fire risk factors
that are under control of the forest manager. The study was based on the 3rd and 5th
Review of the National Forest Inventory and the perimeters of burnt areas for the periods
1998-2003 and 2006-2007, respectively. It was necessary to simulate the stand growth of the
burned plots when the year of the inventory was not the same as the year of fire occurrence.
The probability of fire occurrence was modeled using binary logistic regression; we selected
a first model that incorporates biometric variables, shrub biomass, the stand composition and
altitude and a second model including the same variables without biometric variables. It is
possible to predict the probability of fire in forest stands at the national level with a
reasonable quality, to quantify the effects of management on the probability of fire
occurrence, allowing the development of forest strategies that take into account the fire risk.
Descrição
Mestrado em Engenharia Florestal e dos Recursos Naturais - Instituto Superior de Agronomia
Palavras-chave
forest fire fire risk forest management forest stands logistic regression incêndio florestal povoamento florestal gestão florestal risco de incêndio regressão logística