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A gestão da dívida pública nos últimos cinquenta anos: como gerimos a nossa dívida?
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Este trabalho investiga a evolução da gestão da dívida pública em Portugal entre 1970 e 2023, abordando as suas transformações institucionais, legais e económicas. A análise foca-se em três vertentes: o impacto da integração de Portugal na União Europeia e na Área do Euro, a evolução dos instrumentos de dívida utilizados, e as mudanças nas estratégias de financiamento, incluindo a transição do financiamento monetário para o mercado de dívida transacionável. A análise quantifica o efeito dos diferentes factores na dinâmica da dívida pública neste período, que cresce em termos nominais 1531 vezes enquanto o PIB nominal “apenas” cresce 224 vezes. Finalmente, recolhe o testemunho de altos responsáveis políticos e técnicos pela política de gestão da dívida pública portuguesa. Dos resultados obtidos realçam-se três mensagens principais: (1) o financiamento monetário tem sido extremamente importante para a dinâmica de sustentabilidade da dívida pública, nomeadamente desde que Portugal aderiu à Área do Euro e particularmente após o lançamento dos programas de expansão quantitativa, contribuindo diretamente para uma redução do peso da dívida pública em cerca de 35,2 p.p. do PIB de 2023; (2) o principal factor determinante para o aumento do peso do stock de dívida pública entre 1970 e 2023 foi a despesa com juros que, em termos cumulativos, representa 73,4 pontos percentuais do PIB de 2023; e (3) a dinâmica crescimento-juros (g - r) da dívida pública foi adversa desde que Portugal aderiu ao euro a 1 de janeiro de 1999, período em que a taxa de crescimento nominal anual média da economia foi de apenas 3,57%, inferior à taxa de juro implícita média da dívida pública da República de 3,77%, relação que teria sido mais adversa não fora o efeito favorável na taxa de juro implícita da dívida da República dos referidos programas política monetária não convencional de expansão quantitativa do BCE.
This work investigates the evolution of public debt management in Portugal between 1970 and 2023, addressing its institutional, legal, and economic transformations. The analysis focuses on three aspects: the impact of Portugal's integration into the European Union and the Euro Area, the introduction and use, over time, of new debt instruments, and changes in financing strategies, including the shift from monetary financing to the recourse to tradable debt markets-based financing. It quantifies the effect of different factors on public debt dynamics during this period. This was a period when public debt grew nominally by 1,531 times, while nominal GDP grew by “only” 224 times. Finally, it collects the testimony of senior political and technical officials responsible for Portuguese public debt management. Three key findings stand out: (1) Monetary financing has been extremely important for the sustainability of public debt, especially since Portugal joined the Euro Area and, in particular, following the launch of quantitative easing programs, directly contributing to a reduction of the public debt ratio by around 35.2 percentage points of 2023 GDP; (2) The main factor behind the increase in public debt between 1970 and 2023 was interest expenditure, which cumulatively represents 73.4 percentage points of 2023 GDP; and (3) The growth-interest dynamics (g - r) of public debt have been unfavorable since Portugal joined the Euro Area on January 1, 1999, a period during which the average nominal annual growth rate of the Portuguese economy was just 3.57%, lower than the average implicit interest rate of 3.77% on public debt. This relationship would have been even more adverse without the favorable impact of the ECB's unconventional monetary policy and its quantitative easing programs on the implicit interest rate of Portuguese public debt.
This work investigates the evolution of public debt management in Portugal between 1970 and 2023, addressing its institutional, legal, and economic transformations. The analysis focuses on three aspects: the impact of Portugal's integration into the European Union and the Euro Area, the introduction and use, over time, of new debt instruments, and changes in financing strategies, including the shift from monetary financing to the recourse to tradable debt markets-based financing. It quantifies the effect of different factors on public debt dynamics during this period. This was a period when public debt grew nominally by 1,531 times, while nominal GDP grew by “only” 224 times. Finally, it collects the testimony of senior political and technical officials responsible for Portuguese public debt management. Three key findings stand out: (1) Monetary financing has been extremely important for the sustainability of public debt, especially since Portugal joined the Euro Area and, in particular, following the launch of quantitative easing programs, directly contributing to a reduction of the public debt ratio by around 35.2 percentage points of 2023 GDP; (2) The main factor behind the increase in public debt between 1970 and 2023 was interest expenditure, which cumulatively represents 73.4 percentage points of 2023 GDP; and (3) The growth-interest dynamics (g - r) of public debt have been unfavorable since Portugal joined the Euro Area on January 1, 1999, a period during which the average nominal annual growth rate of the Portuguese economy was just 3.57%, lower than the average implicit interest rate of 3.77% on public debt. This relationship would have been even more adverse without the favorable impact of the ECB's unconventional monetary policy and its quantitative easing programs on the implicit interest rate of Portuguese public debt.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Dívida Soberana Gestão da Dívida Pública Política Monetária e Cambial Instrumentos de Dívida União Europeia e Zona Euro Sovereign Debt Public Debt Management Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy Debt Instruments European Union and Eurozone
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Veiga, Daniel Carvalho (2024). “A gestão da dívida pública nos últimos cinquenta anos: como gerimos a nossa dívida?”. Dissertação de Mestrado. Universidade de Lisboa. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão
Editora
Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão