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Drivers of extreme burnt area in Portugal: fire weather and vegetation
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Resumo(s)
Fire weather indices are used to assess the effect
of weather on wildfire behaviour and to support fire management. Previous studies identified the high daily severity
rating percentile (DSRp) as being strongly related to the total burnt area (BA) in Portugal, but it is still poorly understood how this knowledge can support fire management at a
smaller spatial scale. The aims of this study were to (1) assess whether the 90th DSRp (DSR90p) threshold is adequate
for estimating most of the BA in mainland Portugal; (2) analyse the spatial variability of the DSRp threshold that explains
a large part of BA, at higher resolution; and, (3) analyse
whether vegetation cover can justify the DSRp spatial variability.
We used weather reanalysis data from ERA5-Land, wildfire and land use data from Portuguese land management departments for an extended summer period (15 May to 31 October) from 2001 to 2019. We computed and related DSRp
to large wildfires (BA > 100 ha) and land use to clarify the
effectiveness of the DSRp for estimating BA in Portugal and
assess how vegetation influences it.
Results revealed that the DSR90p is an adequate indicator
of extreme fire weather days and BA in Portugal. In addition, the spatial pattern of the DSRp associated with most of
the total BA shows variability at the municipality scale. Municipalities where large wildfires occur with more extreme
weather conditions have most of the BAs in forests and are
in coastal areas. By contrast, municipalities where large wild fires occur with less extreme weather conditions are predominantly covered by shrublands and are situated in eastern and
inland regions. These findings are a novelty for fire science
in Portugal and should be considered by fire managers and
fire risk assessors.
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Citação
Calheiros, T., Benali, A., Pereira, M., Silva, J., and Nunes, J.: Drivers of extreme burnt area in Portugal: fire weather and vegetation, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4019–4037, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4019-2022, 2022
Editora
EGU