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Bootstrap panel Granger-causality between government budget and external deficits for the EU
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Autores
Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
We investigate the existence of Granger-causality between current account and government budget balances over the period 1970-2007, for different EU and OECD country groupings. We use a panel-data approach based on SUR systems and Wald tests with country specific bootstrap critical values. Our results show a causal relation from budget deficits to current account deficits for several EU countries: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Finland, France, Italy, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland, and Slovakia, along the lines of the so-called twin-deficit relationship. Considering the effective real exchange rate in the SUR system does not substantially alter the results.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Panel Causality Tests Budget Deficit External Imbalance Real Exchange Rates EU OECD
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Afonso, António, Christophe Rault. 2009. "Bootstrap panel Granger-causality between government budget and external deficits for the EU". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão - DE Working papers nº 2-2009/DE/UECE
Editora
ISEG – Departamento de Economia