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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
Esta pesquisa propõe analisar a evolução das relações entre Estados Unidos e China, desde o momento da aproximação diplomática à atual situação de tensões, quando notamos uma mudança drástica na sua relação de parceiros para rivais. Teremos o intuito de averiguar em que medida as transformações na relação de poder dos últimos anos explicam o acirramento da tensão bilateral e a possível alteração do status quo. Para discutir as mudanças no poder de cada um, se utiliza da lente do poder estrutural, concebido por Susan Strange, em todos seus quatro níveis e, em complemento, seus subníveis. Assim, o percurso adotado nesta dissertação consiste em uma contextualização histórica e económica para que se tenha a base para a compreensão de como cada país projeta seu poder em cada esfera do poder estrutural. A geoeconomia servirá de complemento ao poder estrutural por se tratar da principal e mais eficaz forma de projeção de poder chinês, a partir da qual a maior parte das suas iniciativas internacionais são executadas, sendo o alicerce para a construção do poder estrutural. Consideraremos apenas o domínio do poder estrutural por parte dos Estados Unidos, o que não nos permite subestimar a construção de poder chinesa. Através de diversas iniciativas multilaterais e internas alternativas à Ordem Mundial americana – BRI, Made in China 2025, China Standards 2035, internacionalização do renminbi, AIIB, SCO, RCEP, BRICS, CIPS – impulsionadas pelo seu crescimento económico incessante, é possível conceber uma séria ameaça ao status quo norte-americano nas próximas décadas se a China for bem-sucedida em seus planos e os EUA não reverterem sua decadência
geoeconómica. A China vem construindo o caminho para o poder estrutural no longo prazo, mas suas iniciativas ainda são incipientes, o que permite tempo de reação aos Estados Unidos, mas não evitará mais tensões no futuro.
The following study seeks to analyze how the relations between the United States and China evolved in the past decades, since the diplomatic rapprochement to the current tensions, which drastically changed their relationship from partners to rivals. We aim to investigate if the recent power relationship transformations explain the rise of bilateral tension and if that could change the status quo. To discuss the changes in each other's power level, we propose the lens of the structural power, conceived by Susan Strange, in all its four dimensions and, in addition, its sublevels. Thus, the route adopted in this dissertation consists of a historical and economic contextualization to provide the basis for understanding how each country projects its power by each dimension of structural power and geoeconomics. This will serve as a complement to structural power because it is the main and most effective form of Chinese power projection, from which most of its international initiatives are executed, being the foundation for the future construction of structural power. We will only consider the dominance of structural power by the United States, but it does not allow us to underestimate the Chinese plans. China can pose a serious threat to American status quo in the coming decades through various multilateral and domestic alternative initiatives to the American World Order - BRI, Made in China 2025, China Standards 2035, internationalization of the renminbi, AIIB, SCO, RCEP, BRICS, CIPS - driven by its relentless economic growth. It will be conceivable if China succeeds in its plans and the US does not reverse its geo-economic decay. China has been building its way to structural power in the long run, but its initiatives are still nascent, which allows the United States time to react, but will not prevent further tensions in the future.
The following study seeks to analyze how the relations between the United States and China evolved in the past decades, since the diplomatic rapprochement to the current tensions, which drastically changed their relationship from partners to rivals. We aim to investigate if the recent power relationship transformations explain the rise of bilateral tension and if that could change the status quo. To discuss the changes in each other's power level, we propose the lens of the structural power, conceived by Susan Strange, in all its four dimensions and, in addition, its sublevels. Thus, the route adopted in this dissertation consists of a historical and economic contextualization to provide the basis for understanding how each country projects its power by each dimension of structural power and geoeconomics. This will serve as a complement to structural power because it is the main and most effective form of Chinese power projection, from which most of its international initiatives are executed, being the foundation for the future construction of structural power. We will only consider the dominance of structural power by the United States, but it does not allow us to underestimate the Chinese plans. China can pose a serious threat to American status quo in the coming decades through various multilateral and domestic alternative initiatives to the American World Order - BRI, Made in China 2025, China Standards 2035, internationalization of the renminbi, AIIB, SCO, RCEP, BRICS, CIPS - driven by its relentless economic growth. It will be conceivable if China succeeds in its plans and the US does not reverse its geo-economic decay. China has been building its way to structural power in the long run, but its initiatives are still nascent, which allows the United States time to react, but will not prevent further tensions in the future.
Description
Dissertação para obtenção de grau de Mestre em Relações Internacionais
Keywords
China; Estados Unidos; poder estrutural; geoeconomia; status quo; projeção de poder