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Back to the Future: The historical distribution of the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) in the Iberian Peninsula
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Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
The study of species distributions is essential for the effective design and execution of conservation
actions. However, anthropogenic activity has drastically altered the range of most species. Therefore,
their use in conservation is limited as many species currently present a fraction of their indigenous
distribution. The historical and paleontological records are a window into a time when species
distributions had not yet been tainted by human activity. In this work, a compilation of historical and
fossil occurrences of lynxes in the Iberian Peninsula is presented. This database is used to model the
distribution of the Eurasian lynx, one of two lynx species that historically occur in Iberia, to create a
distribution baseline for the species. Furthermore, this work presents a multi-modelling framework that
aims to quantify the uncertainty of its predictions, thus increasing their reliability. It is hypothesized that
this lynx species will have a greater probability of occurrence in the Temperate Broadleaf & Mixed
Forests biome. This hypothesis is explicitly tested by a binomial GLM that shows a significant positive
association between lynx presence and this biome. The availability of prey is also hypothesized to
increase the probability of occurrence of this species. Both hypotheses are supported by the variable
importance in the distribution models. All species distribution modelling approaches (GLM, GAM, and
MaxEnt) used show that the Eurasian lynx was found in the north and northwest of the Iberian Peninsula
during the 19th century. When compared with previous European-wide studies, this work’s best
performing modelling approach (GAM) increased in 436 times the estimated suitable area for the
Eurasian lynx in the Iberian Peninsula. This work establishes the first distribution baseline of the species
at the Iberian level, and once again highlights the importance of historical and paleontological data for
designing quantitative targets for conservation strategies.
Descrição
Tese de mestrado, Biologia da Conservação, 2025, Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências
Palavras-chave
carnívoros ecologia histórica modelação da distribuição de espécies paleobiologia da conservação análise de incerteza Teses de mestrado - 2025